Economics

India’s Reserve Bank has been doing a commendable job of maintaining price stability and securing Indian markets from external shocks. But a proposal from the government to remove control of interest rates from the central bank has economists and policy...

Oil prices have fallen to new lows following news of an unexpected 2.68 mln barrel build of US crude oil inventories.  The API data had prepared the market a small draw down. Many view the sharp drop in oil prices...

The US dollar has been mostly confined to yesterday's ranges against the major currencies.  Outside of a larger than expected Japan trade deficit, and a jump in the Eurozone's current account surplus, the data stream is light.  The main interest...

When the men and women of the committee that sets UK interest rates get together these days, they are dealing with a deceptively simple question. Rates will go up, but how far and how fast? Their answer will decide the...

Egypt has opened a second lane to the Suez Canal amid much fanfare. The US$8 billion dollar expansion adds 35km of new channels to the existing canal and another 35km where existing bodies of water were dredged to make way...

Ever since Jagdish Bhagwati coined the phrase ‘spaghetti bowl’ to describe the maze of overlapping preferential trade arrangements (PTAs), trade economists have been split over whether such deals are ‘building blocks’ or ‘stumbling blocks’ for the multilateral trading system. Ever...

Manufacturing is falling in parts of America and the trend may spread to the entire country, while in Asia Japan sees a fall in GDP and faster inflation. In America, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey saw the index fall to...

Firmer UK inflation has helped sterling recover from yesterday's decline. Sterling overcame resistance near $1.5700 making $1.58 the next technical target. Poor US housing starts data, after a heady 9.8% increase in June, with permits unwinding 7.4% rise could provide...

Fears of a quick sharp devaluation of the Chinese yuan, disrupting the global economy, sparking a currency war, have eased. For the second session, the yuan stabilized.  The central reference rate (fix) was CNY6.3969, having finished the Shanghai session before...

A fragile stability has returned to the Chinese currency and stocks.  With the help of the Social Democrats, the German parliament is likely to endorse Greece's third aid package, even if a rump of Merkel's CDU/CSU balk. The next adjustment...

The US dollar is narrowly mixed as we head into the weekend.  Global stock markets are also mixed.  Although the Nikkei was down, Chinese equities eked out a small gain.  The Shanghai Composite gained nearly 6% this week, the best...

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent meeting with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Russia, and his visit to Pakistan next year for the SAARC summit, has raised hopes about...

In further signs of an improving U.S. economy, both important unemployment claim statistics have fallen to their lowest level in nearly a generation and retail sales have shown a sharp increase. Weekly initial unemployment claims rose to 274,000 in the...

The euro has rallied to new highs since mid-July, and after repeated attempts to convincingly break above JPY125, the dollar is retreating against the yen as well.   The euro reached almost $1.1160.  The next target is near $1.1200.  The dollar...

As the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) goes through another round, some details have started trickling out from the secretive negotiations. A concerning detail for Australia is the provision that applies penalties to foreign state-owned enterprises (SOEs) if they receive discounted loans...