Economics

One possible future – a glimpse of our children’s fate if the climate keeps changing faster than our efforts to address it. Submerged countries. Abandoned cities. Fields that no longer grow. Political disruptions that trigger new conflict, and even more...

The G20 leader’s summit took place in November in Istanbul, Turkey. The emphasis of Turkey’s G20 presidency this year is on “inclusive and robust global growth.” Turkey recognizes inequality as a major problem within countries as well as across national...

China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative is an incredibly ambitious undertaking — and perhaps Beijing is only starting to realise just how ambitious. China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative is an incredibly ambitious undertaking — and perhaps Beijing...

The US dollar is firm against the dollar-bloc currencies, and sterling, but is heavier against the euro and yen.  The 13th consecutive year-over-year decline in China's imports helped keep the pressure on the commodity producers.  Despite New Zealand reporting strong...

Malaysia ended its chairmanship of ASEAN as the grouping announced the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in November 2015. The AEC intends to create a single market across the ASEAN region by standardising economic regulations including those on...

The exaggerated response to last week's ECB meeting continues to unwind.  Draghi's dovish comments and the strength of US employment data have helped keep the divergence meme front and center.  The exaggerated response to last week's ECB meeting continues to...

China joined the SDR, with a weight that puts it in third place behind the dollar and euro.  The ECB did ease policy. It delivered a 10 bp cut in the deposit rate (now -30 bp), extended its asset purchase...

The prospect that the central banks of the US and the Eurozone will soon make opposing moves on policy rates has allowed financial markets once again to demonstrate their neuroses. Some market participants are expecting exchange rate turmoil – but...

Recent tensions over maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea have highlighted the lack of consensus over the existing security order in Asia. Understanding China’s perception of the Asian security order is crucial to find innovative policy solutions to...

After the ECB's disappointment yesterday market nerves were shattered, but the largely as expected US jobs data may help the focus return to the underlying fundamental fact.  The ECB just eased policy.  Not as much as the market expected, and...

The only way to explain the largest swing in the euro in six years yesterday is to appreciate the disconnect between what was expected and what was delivered by the ECB.  Draghi's urgency and commitment to do "what it must"...

This year has been one of high expectations and of disappointment in Southeast Asia. Rarely has the economic and strategic importance of the region been as apparent. As China’s economy is transitioning towards ‘a new normal’ marked by lower growth,...

Development researchers cover many dimensions when discussing poverty in developing countries. Numerous studies have focused on the size of the response of the poverty rate to growth of real per capita income, usually stated in terms of income or growth...

Market participants knew that volatility would rise today with the ECB meeting.  What they got was far worse than could have been anticipated.  Market participants knew that volatility would rise today with the ECB meeting.  What they got was far...

The Federal Reserve ventures closer to raising interest rates in a move that could impact the cost of mortgages, car loans, corporate bonds, and a variety of other debts throughout the financial world.  According to the Federal Reserve, "economic activity...