Economics

24 June 2016

Brexit Forces Scramble for Safety

The UK's decision to leave the EU spurred a dramatic risk-off move through the capital markets.  The dollar, yen, and gold soared.  Equities and emerging market assets sold off hard. Core bond yields fell sharply.  The UK's decision to leave...

23 June 2016

Who is Trashing the TPP and Who Can Save It?

  The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is under siege, with presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle voicing increasingly protectionist positions. As the general election gets into full swing this fall, the anti-trade rhetoric promises to reach fever pitch, taking...

22 June 2016

The Young Need to Turnout to Vote

We showed that younger age cohorts in the UK are more inclined to vote to stay in the EU than their elders.  However, some suggested that this consideration is blunted by the fact that the younger people are less likely...

22 June 2016

Federal Reserve Asserts Negative Rate Authority

Negative interest rates may be coming to America.  A reality in Japan for years and a growing trend throughout Europe, negative interest rates on government bonds have wreaked havoc on financial markets and standard economic models of bond prices and...

22 June 2016

The Calm Before the Storm

There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today. The focus is squarely on tomorrow's UK referendum.  According to a BBC focus group, the leave camp won the debate 39%-34%. The last polls show a contest that it too...

21 June 2016

Gun Manufacturers Face another Legal Challenge

Last year families of the Sandy Hook shooting filed a potentially precedent-setting lawsuit. They sued the manufacturer of the AR-15 rifle that Adam Lanza used to gun down 20 schoolchildren and their teachers in a small town in Connecticut in 2012. Last...

21 June 2016

The U.K.’s EU Referendum Matters to You America

On June 23, citizens of the United Kingdom will go to the polls to vote on whether their country will remain a member of the European Union. While the outcome will have the greatest impact on residents of Europe, it...

21 June 2016

The U.K.’s EU Referendum’s Global Reach Includes Asia

Amid secular stagnation, Europe's challenges have increased dramatically in the past few years, while new risks – particularly Brexit – have potential to trigger negative chain reactions, says Dan Steinbock.  Since the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010, Brussels has...

21 June 2016

Persistent Low Interest Rates Bring Bank Woes

Persistently low interest rates are set to hit bank profits in America, triggering warnings from analysts across Wall Street.  A number of notes released late last week and early this week to clients warned that Federal Reserve policy is likely...

21 June 2016

The Eurozone Focus on Germany, the U.S. on Yellen

The US dollar remains heavy against most of the major and emerging market currencies today as the pullback that began at the end of last week continues.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars are leading the way, with 0.5%-0.6% gains.  ...

20 June 2016

The Philippines is Out in Front with Women in Politics

This is supposed to be the Asian century, with East Asian countries leading the way. The world admires many East Asian countries for their miraculous economic growth, democracy-building and cultural innovation. However, can East Asia also provide a model for...