Trends In The Demand And Supply Of Food Grains
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In this paper we will focus on the past demand and supply of food gains and then move onto the forecasted demand and supply of food grains.
Past Trend In The Demand And Supply Of Food Grains
The population pressure in the 1950s was not very high. Although agricultural production was volatile during the mentioned period, taking a 5-year moving average reveals that the world supply of food grains far outdid its demand. There were two periods of time where there was a fall in the per capita production of food grains and that was in the 1960s. The five-year moving average reached its height in 1984, i.e. 371kgs and fell subsequently in the 1990s to 350kg. It is seen that from 1984 the world’s population has overshot the production of food grains. This is owing to the demographic growth that is taking place in parts of the world that previously suffered from a low per capita income.
A better picture of the production situation can be obtained if we analyze it at the country level. The Sub- Saharan African countries have shown a poor performance in terms of production of food grains. Some of the factors that are responsible for such low production are less attention on the part of the government to this sector, political instability and many more. Climatic factors also contributed to the agricultural variability. These countries were also bereft of technological innovations.
For the Middle East countries volatility in agricultural production was so high that from 1984 no particular trend can be arrived at.
For the South Asian countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, the trend is contributed by India, which is the most populous of the three. Although production was hampered by the droughts in the mid 60s and early 70s, no major crisis was witnessed in the production of food grains.
Hence we may conclude from the above that the world production of food grains has declined over the years, wherein the demand has outstripped the supply.
Forecast Of Future Demand And Supply Of Food Grains
It is estimated that the world population will rise by 800 million per decade till 2025. The production of food grains is expected to rise to 2.67 billion by 2025 so as match the demand level. It is also estimated that there will be a regional mismatch in the demand of food grains across different regions.
