Markets

There are too many near-term uncertainties to make an outright directional call on EM. Between a looming deal for Greece, a fragile agreement in Ukraine, the bounce in commodity prices and fall in the dollar, we prefer to focus on...

The US dollar is little changed in Europe after a quiet Asian session.  Both the US and Canada are on holiday today.  The key focus it euro group meeting today as they discuss the terms of Greece's aid.   The...

As 2014 fades in the rear-view mirror, the Chinese economy exhibits two sharply conflicting trends: while economic growth continues to decelerate, the stock market is rising steadily. The capital market boom — which started mid-year and accelerated following the People’s...

There is a high degree of uncertainty in the global markets.  How deep into negative territory can nominal bond yields fall?  Has oil bottomed?  Are deflationary forces deepening? Will Greece remain within EMU, will the monetary union be stronger or...

China’s new government fund for venture capital has real potential to significantly promote China’s domestic entrepreneurship and innovation. But if access to the new funding is too easy, the projects main objective will be jeopardised. China’s new government fund for...

Since the launch of bold economic reforms in 1986, Vietnam has transformed itself from an impoverished and isolated economy into one of the fastest-growing and most open economies in the world. But it should not be complacent. It must undertake...

Over the last week, Russia (+10.3%), Hungary (+6.1%), and Czech Republic (+2.3%) have outperformed in the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, while Turkey (-3.5%), Korea (-3.1%), and Colombia (-3.0%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI...

What a difference a week makes.  Last week's US employment data had put the dollar bulls back into control.  Developments over the last 24-48 hours have seen the reins slip from their hands.   What a difference a week makes....

ASEAN needs a ready and capable steward in 2015 and Malaysia looks to be in the right place at the right time. Malaysia has made clear that realising the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by the end of the year will...

After his victory in the December 2014 elections, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to turn Japan into ‘one of the greatest powers in the world’ by implementing the new foreign policy approach of ‘proactive pacifism’. Abe is seeking...

The debate on fiscal reform in Japan has been heating up. The working assumption so far has been that tax hikes will be sufficient to solve the fiscal problem. Fortunately the fiscal debate has now gone beyond this innocent simplicity...

The US dollar is firmer but is largely within the range seen yesterday.  The market awaits developments from the G20 meeting that concludes today and meeting of European finance ministers followed by the heads of state gathering.   The US...

As in other areas, the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China has been a gradual process. Now, almost 25 years after SOE reforms began, the government must tackle new problems: breaking down special interests, distancing the state from the...

The rebound in oil prices and the sliver of hope of a peace treaty in Ukraine is serving to soften a few of the trends in EM assets in recent months.  We doubt that this is the start of a...

1.  The swing in the pendulum of expectations back toward a mid-year Fed rate hike is one of the key developments that will shape the investment climate.  The data in the week ahead, including the broader measures of the labor...