Markets

Since becoming India’s prime minister in May 2014, Narendra Modi has sought to make the country ‘open for business’. But while there is hope that his pro-business policies — often dubbed ‘Modinomics’ — will improve economic growth, aspects of India’s...

As we suspected, the current EM bounce still has some legs.  The BOJ’s surprise easing helped EM and risk end on last week on a strong note, and we expect that to carry over into this week.  Within EM, we...

1) Korea’s Financial Services Commission will introduce a so-called “omnibus account” for foreigners investing in local stocks, 2) Malaysian Attorney General Apandi Ali closed the investigation into transfers of foreign money into Prime Minister Najib Razak’s personal bank accounts, 3)...

Economic forecasting is always difficult. The American economist John Kenneth Galbraith famously said ‘we have two sorts of forecasters: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know’. Yet, while some sceptics assert that economic forecasts are...

After intensive industrialization, growth deceleration is natural. No nation has enjoyed sustained double-digit growth after industrialization. The real test of resilience is the continued increase of Chinese living standards. After intensive industrialization, growth deceleration is natural. No nation has enjoyed...

We had been tracking the budding scandal that implicated the office of Japan's Economic Minister Amari.  We had expressed our concern earlier this week that the scandal could sap Amari's office strength and be a distraction.  However, the situation unraveled...

It has been a shaky start to 2016 for global stock markets, with substantial falls across all international markets, followed by some weak rallies. The overall decline has been partly blamed on the price of crude oil, which is hovering...

If the mass media is to be believed, Africa is hardly a continent brimming with opportunities for business. However, for some time international business commentators have been positioning the continent as the next market with significant potential. It is now...

The Philippines has performed well in the past few years relative to its peers. It demonstrated great resilience to exogenous shocks that would have undone less capable economies. However, will it be able to sustain its positive economic position? There...

The Bank of Japan meets later this week.  We do not think that it will expand its already aggressive monetary policy stance.  Given the largely operational adjustments announced last month, it seems premature to expect substantive adjustment now.  It is...

There is no doubt that China is building up its military capabilities. Nor that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe played up the threat of China, which spends three times as much as Japan does on its national defence, as a...

EM enjoyed a nice bounce to end last week. The global liquidity outlook has clearly moved in favor of EM, at least for now.  However, the overall global backdrop has not shifted in favor of EM just yet.  Bottom line: ...

1) Malaysia’s central bank kept rates steady at 3.25%, as expected, but cut bank reserve ratios from 4% to 3.5%, 2) S&P downgraded Poland one notch to BBB+ with negative outlook, 3) Brazil’s central bank did a complete about-face and...

China has posted its lowest annual GDP growth since 1990. The slowdown is seen as a major concern for some investors, but against a backdrop of disappointing consumer spending, intensifying deflationary pressures, tepid export growth, and a stock market that...

There have been a couple of notable signals about the upcoming EU referendum lately. A public opinion poll showed a clear majority lead for Brexit, then a Financial Times poll of more than 100 leading economists concluded that a vote...