Though a Recession is Unlikely, Stronger U.S. Economic Data Would Be Welcomed
The US dollar is enjoying firmer tone as the week winds down. It is up against all the major currencies but the Norwegian krone today. This trims the loss for the week. In fact, the roughly 0.7% decline of the...
China’s Changing Industrial Landscape is not Benefiting the Lives of its Millions of Workers
China’s industrial landscape is in a process of rapid transformation. As low-end industries are squeezed by rising costs for land, labour and other resources, the Chinese government has reinforced its efforts to improve industrial practices and make production models more...
How Significant is Indonesia’s Economic Slowdown?
The slowdown in Indonesian growth to 4.7 percent for the first quarter of 2015 follows a steady quarterly slowdown since the 6.8 percent peak just over four years ago. Is this slowdown simply a post-commodity boom cyclical downturn, or is...
Can Vietnam Become a New Asian Tiger When New Leaders are Selected in 2016?
In 2016, Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party (CPV) will convene its 12th congress to select new leaders for itself and the country it rules. With new leaders will come new policies, but those who hope for the second coming of reform...
U.S. Economic Growth is not Exactly Living up to Forecasts
As I read the news and watch the markets, I am struck by the yawning difference between what is going on with the economy and what is happening with equities. I know the worn out arguments. People are buying stocks...
Indonesia’s Nationalistic Economic Agenda Contradicts the Need for Foreign Investment
On 29 April, Indonesia executed seven foreigners and one Indonesian for drug offences. The refusal of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to offer clemency despite pleas from foreign leaders has been analysed in a number of ways. Most have interpreted Jokowi’s...
Is Fed Chair Yellen Correct About Equity Valuations?
I have been touting a major top in stocks, especially in the Dow and the largest small-cap index, the Russell 2000. With each new bubble, we reach higher highs, and then crash to lower lows. It is such an obvious...
A Preview of Emerging Market News and Events
EM assets are again being pulled in two directions. EM equities are getting a boost from the PBOC rate cut over the weekend, while EM currencies are starting soft this week as the strong US jobs report puts Fed lift-off...
Having a ‘Big Government’ Depends on the Definition
In the lead-up to the federal budget the government has made it clear, it sees the long-term task of fiscal management in terms of cutting expenditure rather than raising revenue. We have been repeatedly told the Rudd-Gillard government let spending...
The Nascent Digital Business Revolution in Australia
Digital disruption is a phrase increasingly bandied about when it comes to the Australian economy, but how deeply do digital technologies really penetrate our industry. Digital disruption is a phrase increasingly bandied about when it comes to the Australian economy,...
An Emerging Markets Status Update
1) The Brazilian central bank indicated less FX swaps and additional monetary tightening, 2) After a delay, Israel has a new government, 3) Saudi Arabia will open up its stock market to foreign investment, 4) The Argentine political outlook has...
Healing War Wounds a Necessary Step for Vietnam Reconcilation
There are certain dates that hold special significance to particular communities of people. For the Vietnamese population, and the many men and women who served in the Vietnam War, 30 April is an unforgettable date. Vietnam celebrates the day as...
The Australia-China FTA a ‘Shot in the Arm’ for the Aussie Economy
Australian politicians often say ‘Australia-China relations are crucial to Australia’s development and prosperity’. Many hope the China–Australia FTA, due to be signed later this year, will be the shot in the arm Australia’s economy needs. Australian politicians often say ‘Australia-China...
Is Thailand’s Current Economic Growth Rate Sustainable?
Thailand’s current development model may not be able to sustain growth in the long term. Thailand needs to make the shift to a knowledge-based, innovative economy — and this means that policy settings will need to change. Thailand’s economic development...
A Closer Look at Japan PM Abe’s Proposed Agricultural Reforms
In his 29 April speech to US Congress, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proudly referred to his administration’s ‘sweeping reforms to our agricultural cooperatives that have not changed in 60 long years’. But the draft bill presented to the Diet...