Markets

8 February 2016

Bearish Sentiment Continues in the Emerging Markets

EM assets for the most part fared well last week, and positive sentiment should carry over into this week.  China reported January foreign reserves over the weekend, and they fell less than expected to $3.231 bln.  China markets are closed...

5 February 2016

Food Scarcity a Top Campaign Issue in the Philippines

The Philippine presidential campaign period officially begins on 9 February. But amid the same old spiels about political piety, not one of the five presidential candidates — current Vice-President Jojo Binay, Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, Senator Grace Poe...

5 February 2016

Balance of Payments Out of Balance? See Errors and Omissions

Chinese markets will be closed next week for the Lunar New Year celebration.  However, over the weekend, China will report its January reserve figures.  The market suspects that the PBOC burnt through another $120 bln of reserves.  China's reserves stood...

5 February 2016

An Emerging Markets Status Update

1) China relaxed some rules on foreign capital flows, 2) Malaysian Prime Minister Najib is tightening his grip on power, 3) The Czech National Bank (CNB) has tilted more dovish, 4) Ukrainian Economy Minister Abromavicius resigned abruptly, throwing the ruling...

4 February 2016

Joko Widodo and His Uphill Battle for Indonesia Reforms

To many, Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) election represented a break with the past, as he had no ties to existing military or political elites. The new president was also different from his predecessors in other ways. He had humble...

4 February 2016

Can Vietnam’s Leadership Offer Quality Growth?

While Vietnam’s 12th Party Congress was billed as a contest for leadership of the party between sitting party secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and sitting Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, it might well be remembered as marking the beginning of a...

3 February 2016

China’s ‘New Normal’ Economic Growth is still Strong

For China, the story for its economy in 2015 simply reinforced what was already becoming apparent through 2014. GDP growth was slowing, and the political capital the Communist Party could collect from lauding this one statistic was diminishing. Premier Li...

2 February 2016

Japan Takes a Massive Liquidity Bet

Instead of boosting growth, the Bank of Japan's negative interest rates will contribute to domestic fiscal deterioration, regional risks, and even global threats.  About a week ago, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda said to the parliament: “We...

2 February 2016

UK to EU: “We’re In”

Prime Minister Cameron has enthusiastically embraced the EC draft proposals in response to the UK’s demands.  The wires quote Cameron as saying, "I would opt in to EU membership on these good terms."  The proposals presented by European Council President...

2 February 2016

Can Australia Capture Part of the Asian Century?

In 2012, Australia’s Asian Century White Paper outlined fundamental policy and attitudinal changes that would be required if Australia was to make the most of the opportunities presented by the Asian century. Yet it has had no impact on policy...

1 February 2016

What is Causing Thailand’s Economy to Underpeform?

No country in Southeast Asia shoots itself in the foot more than Thailand. With so much going for it, the second-largest economy in the region still manages to underperform spectacularly. Its growth trajectory is in the 2–3 percent range even...