The Divergent Dollar Trend Roared Back
The US dollar had a good week. Indeed, the Dollar Index's 3.3% rise was its best weekly performance since last September. After looking rather bleak, the divergence theme struck back with a vengeance. The US dollar had a good week....
An Emerging Markets Status Update
1) Petrobras reported stronger than expected Q1 earnings, 2) A Colombian court ordered a delay to the sale of the government’s 57.6% stake in hydropower company Isagen, 3) The Mexican government cut its growth forecast for the year by a...
The Corporate Response to a ‘Brexit’ is Complicated
The die is cast: British people have voted for a government that has promised to hold a referendum on the UK’s EU membership by 2017. This week, business has intervened to liven up the debate. The country’s main industry lobby...
The Political and Economic Plight of China’s Minorities
Grigvovan / Shutterstock.com Grigvovan / Shutterstock.com In recent years, Uyghur and Tibetan issues have captured most of the national and international attention granted to China’s minorities. Yet Uyghurs and Tibetans account for less than 15 per cent of China’s minority...
The U.S. FOMC Minutes Signal a Likely Rate Hike Delay
The US Dollar Index advanced in the first three days of the week but is under some pressure today. The FOMC minutes confirmed what the market had already known, which is a rate hike next month is highly unlikely. Meanwhile...
Joko Widodo’s First 100 Days in Office
Distinguishing the first 100 days of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and his government are historic reforms to fuel subsidies, social assistance to the poor, streamlined investment licensing and virtually no new restrictive regulations on foreign trade. Fuel subsidy reform has...
The Last Round of UK Deflation was Pre-Beatles
The rate of inflation has turned negative for the first time in 55 years in the UK. The phenomenon of deflation in economic jargon means consumers will see a drop in prices, with essentials like petrol and food cheaper than...
A Preview of Emerging Market News and Events
EM assets start the week under some mild pressure. This comes after last week’s rally, which was fed by the positive combination of stabilizing commodity prices, continued dollar softness, and falling US yields. Those impulses are likely to continue this...
What Happened to Thailand’s Open Society and Can it Make a Comeback?
Thailand now stands on a tightrope among the major powers. Recently, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made a high-profile visit to Bangkok, hosted by the coup-appointed government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Medvedev’s visit suggests that Thailand is now strategically...
Australia as an Energy Superpower, or Not
Economic modelling and its associated forecasts are always open to criticism, particularly when the results align with the predisposition of the modellers or their paymasters. Such criticism has been a feature of economic modelling on energy and climate change for...
Is the New Conservative Government Prepared to Tackle the UK’s Many Challenges?
The state of the UK economy featured heavily in the election campaign, but the deficit overwhelmed the discussion. Over the next five years, however, the new government will have to confront a range of economic challenges. Predicting how these will...
China as a Net Exporter of Capital
The governments and people of Southeast Asia must develop a strong sense of ownership and control over infrastructure projects as China increasingly directs its investments towards the region’s infrastructure. The governments and people of Southeast Asia must develop a strong...
The Proportion of Politically Connected Indonesian Firms is Declining
The financial and political crises of 1998 brought about significant changes in Indonesia’s corporate landscape. The proportion of Indonesian firms with political connections remains relatively high, but it is declining, as modes of political engagement increasingly vary. The financial and...
Strategy in Targeting Africa for Expanding Foreign Companies
A recent survey done by The Economist Group on 217 companies from 45 different countries revealed that about 65% of them; intend to expand to Africa in the next one decade. Growth potential in most African economies coupled with the...
An Emerging Markets Status Update
1) China stimulus continues, 2) Stymied India reform efforts, 3) Brazil’s fiscal outlook has worsened after the lower house passed an amendment to boost pension payments, 4) Polish political risk is rising, 5) The Russian central bank bought USD for...