Markets

The EU is warning that Austria, Italy, and Lithuania are at risk of not achieving their 2016 budget goals.  It also warned Spain that is too might miss its target.  Nevertheless, the EU said there were no serious violations. The...

Federalism is a buzzword in the Philippines these days. A former chief justice of the Supreme Court, Reynato Puno, recently launched a highly publicised national renewal movement, Bagong Sistema, Bagong Pag-asa (New System, New Hope), calling for a change in...

EM starts the week on a soft footing.  The repercussions of the attacks in Paris are still unclear, but the dollar’s rise against the majors continues and is likely to keep it bid against EM currencies as well.  Equity markets...

People leave Africa for a number of different reasons. Persecution, compulsory military service, war, and turmoil are the headline causes. However, just as important are the lack of opportunities for employment for young people and poor welfare conditions. Unfortunately, an...

The Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) is preparing a new slate of leaders to replace the old guard who are retiring at the 12th National Congress in 2016. Public attention has been drawn to the rise of young ‘princelings’ — the...

1) The ruling party in India, the BJP, was defeated in the Bihar state assembly elections; 2) Brazilian markets have gotten excited about the prospects of a change of the country’s Finance Minister; 3) The MSCI went through with its...

The taxation of superannuation has been the cause of much consternation. Much of the difficulty is the result of the slow drift of superannuation from the moorings of its original purpose. In introducing the superannuation guarantee in 1992, the Keating...

Malaysia is currently in crisis; the ringgit seems to be on an inexorable downhill slide, ethnic tensions have deteriorated from an uncomfortable simmer to an open flame, and both the government and opposition coalitions are unravelling. Malaysian politics and society...

Many African countries have in recent years, shown phenomenal economic growth. However, recent developments on global markets – including the drop in prices of commodities such as oil, copper, and cobalt – have raised questions about the sustainability of Africa’s...

The October employment data convinced many that a Fed hike in December is a strong probability.  On top of the strongest average hourly earnings in several years, the US reported a record increase in September consumer credit.  Earlier last week, the US...

EM starts the week off on softer footing, as Friday’s jobs report supports the notion of December Fed lift-off.  USD/ZAR is making new all-time highs, and we expect most of EM to revisit the lows from August and September as...

As the Hindi saying goes:  If you live in the water, do not make an enemy of the crocodile. The ruling party in India, the BJP, was defeated in the Bihar state assembly elections.  The party came out with 59...

1) The AKP won a majority in the Turkish elections; 2) Colombia’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 bps to 5.25% and added some new FX measures to its arsenal; 3) China will lift a freeze on IPOs by...

Recent naval manoeuvres and land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands have drawn attention to the risk of incidents at sea leading to growing tensions and even conflict in the South China Sea. On Tuesday 27 October 2015, the United...

The US$12 billion listing of state-owned Japan Post Holdings overnight makes it the largest initial public offering (IPO) in the world this year. In choosing to list its postal business, Japan follows the lead of Britain, which privatised the Royal...