Australia’s Beef Producers Facing a Debt-Deflation Spiral
What will happen now that the rains have come to many parched beef lands of Queensland? Current high cattle prices and renewed pastures suggest optimism, even good times. Perhaps record exports from the world’s largest beef exporter? If only if...
Zimbabwe’s Import Ban Dents its Informal Economy
In the past few weeks, protesters brought Beitbridge, the busiest inland border post in sub-Saharan Africa, to a standstill for several hours. The main concern was the banning of some goods from entering Zimbabwe. In the past few weeks, protesters brought Beitbridge, the busiest inland...
Economic Uncertainty comes from the Failed Turkish Coup
The failed July 15 coup in Turkey has prompted a tsunami of responses by the government that is likely to have a lasting impact on all aspects of politics and society, including the economy. The failed July 15 coup in...
Takedown: Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak
Last week the US Department of Justice (DoJ) announced that it was taking action to seek ‘the forfeiture and recovery of more than US$1 billion in assets’ related to 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). This action will likely start the process...
For China, Investment is not a Two-Way Street
China is unusual in that it is a developing country that has emerged as a major investor. China itself is an important destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), and opening to the outside world has been an important part of...
Economic Impact from China’s Flooding Grows
After weeks of torrential rain across central and southern China, the mainland has suffered from a series of devastating floods. As the total price tag has soared, the impact will be felt in economic growth. By mid-July, almost 240 people...
Is the U.S. Economic Recovery about to Speed Up?
This Great Graphic was tweeted by Alan Kruger (@Alan_Kruger). Drawing on official data and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker for Q2 GDP (2.4%), it shows the current business cycle in the context of a four earlier cycles. Until now, the...
Thailand not Quite Prepared for the King’s Passing
After some months of uncertainty, a representative from Thailand’s Democrats Party last week declared in a televised seminar that the party would not support the proposed draft constitution in the 7 August referendum. This follows an earlier declaration from the...
You Say You Want a Constitution (Change)
Following the 10 July upper house elections the Abe government now has the two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet necessary to pass constitutional amendments. So what are the likely consequences? Four years ago, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party...
India’s Rexit – RBI Governor Rajan Leaves
June suffered from an excess of exits. However, none of them lived up to forecasts of dire consequences, at least for India. For now, Indian markets have shrugged off both Brexit and Rexit — the exit of Governor Raghuram Rajan...
Emerging Markets Wait for FOMC Meeting
EM ended the week on a soft note, as the dollar reasserted broad-based strength against most currencies. The FOMC meeting this week could see the Fed push back against the market’s dovish take on policy, in which case EM would...
An Emerging Markets Status Update
The New York Times reported that the US is preparing to seize $1 bln in assets tied to 1MDB, S&P downgraded Turkey a notch to BB with a negative outlook, citing political uncertainty, Turkish President Erdogan declared a three-month state...
A New, Small Wave of Italian Migration to Australia is not Feeling Valued
Increasing numbers of young Italians are following in the footsteps of previous generations in migrating to Australia, but up to 40% report feeling exploited at work, and found it difficult to have their skills recognised, new research has found. Any...
Australia’s Productivity Commission Blasts ‘effects test’ as Unwarranted
The Productivity Commission has condemned government plans for an “effects test” that would make it easier to stop large businesses exploiting their market power against small businesses and farmers. It has also criticised the Coalition’s toughening of foreign investment rules for the...
We’re Japan, and We’re Here to Help
Foreign aid is a key instrument of international engagement in Japan’s foreign policy toolkit. Although Tokyo is no longer the world’s top aid donor that it once was in the 1990s, it still was the world’s number four aid donor...