Markets

29 July 2016

Zimbabwe’s Import Ban Dents its Informal Economy

In the past few weeks, protesters brought Beitbridge, the busiest inland border post in sub-Saharan Africa, to a standstill for several hours. The main concern was the banning of some goods from entering Zimbabwe. In the past few weeks, protesters brought Beitbridge, the busiest inland...

28 July 2016

Takedown: Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak

Last week the US Department of Justice (DoJ) announced that it was taking action to seek ‘the forfeiture and recovery of more than US$1 billion in assets’ related to 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). This action will likely start the process...

27 July 2016

For China, Investment is not a Two-Way Street

China is unusual in that it is a developing country that has emerged as a major investor. China itself is an important destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), and opening to the outside world has been an important part of...

27 July 2016

Economic Impact from China’s Flooding Grows

After weeks of torrential rain across central and southern China, the mainland has suffered from a series of devastating floods. As the total price tag has soared, the impact will be felt in economic growth. By mid-July, almost 240 people...

27 July 2016

Is the U.S. Economic Recovery about to Speed Up?

This Great Graphic was tweeted by Alan Kruger (@Alan_Kruger). Drawing on official data and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker for Q2 GDP (2.4%), it shows the current business cycle in the context of a four earlier cycles. Until now, the...

26 July 2016

Thailand not Quite Prepared for the King’s Passing

After some months of uncertainty, a representative from Thailand’s Democrats Party last week declared in a televised seminar that the party would not support the proposed draft constitution in the 7 August referendum. This follows an earlier declaration from the...

25 July 2016

You Say You Want a Constitution (Change)

Following the 10 July upper house elections the Abe government now has the two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet necessary to pass constitutional amendments. So what are the likely consequences? Four years ago, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party...

25 July 2016

India’s Rexit – RBI Governor Rajan Leaves

June suffered from an excess of exits. However, none of them lived up to forecasts of dire consequences, at least for India. For now, Indian markets have shrugged off both Brexit and Rexit — the exit of Governor Raghuram Rajan...

25 July 2016

Emerging Markets Wait for FOMC Meeting

EM ended the week on a soft note, as the dollar reasserted broad-based strength against most currencies. The FOMC meeting this week could see the Fed push back against the market’s dovish take on policy, in which case EM would...

25 July 2016

An Emerging Markets Status Update

The New York Times reported that the US is preparing to seize $1 bln in assets tied to 1MDB, S&P downgraded Turkey a notch to BB with a negative outlook, citing political uncertainty, Turkish President Erdogan declared a three-month state...

21 July 2016

We’re Japan, and We’re Here to Help

Foreign aid is a key instrument of international engagement in Japan’s foreign policy toolkit. Although Tokyo is no longer the world’s top aid donor that it once was in the 1990s, it still was the world’s number four aid donor...