Markets

21 April 2016

Is Higher Education Making the Grade in Vietnam?

Vietnam has announced a bold new higher education reform agenda. The government of Vietnam will offer up to 10,000 government scholarships for overseas doctoral study between 2014 and 2020 (or 1300–1500 per year) to tertiary and research institute staff. The...

21 April 2016

Securing the India-Myanmar Border a Top Priority

On 31 March 2016, a tribunal set up by the Indian government upheld a ban on the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) (NSCN(K)) for five years. The case pertains to the 4 June 2015 attacks carried out by NSCN(K)...

21 April 2016

The Latest from Japan’s Ministry of Finance

The following observations are drawn from the weekly report of Japan's Ministry of Finance unless noted otherwise.  We use the weekly data instead of monthly to identify changes of trend earlier.  We use simple convention of the week by the...

20 April 2016

‘Big Daddy Xi’ Leads China’s Charge

This year marks the 40th anniversary of the death of Chairman Mao and with it one of the lowest points in the political history of the People’s Republic of China. The nation that had stood up in 1949 was, at...

20 April 2016

China’s Slowing Growth Shows Stabilizing Signs

Despite international skepticism, China's first-quarter data suggests economic resilience amid global challenges, while structural transition prevails in the medium term.  According to new data, China's economy grew by 6.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016. While it reflected...

19 April 2016

Are We Missing a Big Infrastructure Opportunity?

The US presidential selection process is well underway, and yet there has been no coherent discussion of fiscal policy.  In part, this is because it does not appear particularly urgent.  The US deficit peaked in 2009 at 10.1% of GDP. ...

19 April 2016

India’s Budget Take Three

When India voted in the Narendra Modi government with a stable majority in the last election in 2014 it was widely expected to pave the way for major changes. However, political obstacles and a tendency to follow the path of...

18 April 2016

Under the Surface of the Australian Sub Deal

Australia’s selection of a replacement for its Collins-Class submarine, termed the SEA1000 program, is entering its final stages. The competitive evaluation process set up by Australian government is nearing completion as the five-person Advisory Expert Panel finishes its consideration of...

18 April 2016

Emerging Market Setup: Relative Strength Persists

EM ended last week on a firm note.  Given the absence of any Fed-specific risks or any major US data releases, that firmness could carry over into this week.  The failure to reach an agreement in Doha by oil producers...

15 April 2016

If Britain Leaves the EU, Will Investors Leave Britain?

Foreign investors love Britain, but Brexit would kill the vibe. According to new research colleagues and I have conducted at the Centre for Economic Performance, leaving the European Union could lead to a fall in inward foreign direct investment into the...

15 April 2016

Indonesia Stumbles Into More Natural Resource Bets

Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) order on 23 March 2016 that the Masela Block use an onshore Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) refinery ended six months of intrigue — and years of delay — about Indonesia’s largest offshore gas field. Rather...

15 April 2016

Mostly Central Bank and Government Headlines in the EM Space

Bank Indonesia will use the 7-day reverse repo rate as its new benchmark policy rate, the ruling party in South Korea unexpectedly lost parliamentary elections, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy to recession settings, Turkey has nominated its...

15 April 2016

The Market Brushes off Questionable Chinese Data

China's slew of economic data lends credence to ideas that the world's second-largest economy may be stabilizing.  However, the data failed to have a wider impact on the global capital markets, including supporting Chinese equities. In fact, the seven-day advance...

14 April 2016

China: Dam Nation

China’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Brahmaputra River (known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet) recently became fully operational. The $1.5 billion 510 megawatt Zangmu hydroelectric dam has brought in its wake a flood of concerns, especially in India, regarding its...

14 April 2016

Sri Lanka…What Went Wrong?

Last year, soon after taking power as president of Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirisena requested a US$4 billion loan from the IMF to restructure its debt repayments. The bailout package was rejected by the IMF. It warned the government instead to...