China’s Economic Growth Falls to the Policymakers
The pattern of growth that drove the Chinese economic miracle has broadly run its course. China’s future prosperity now rests on the shoulders of its policymakers. Will they be able to steer the Chinese economy to prosperity, or will China...
Young South Koreans Losing Interest in the North
It is not easy being a young person in globalised South Korea. The intense competition that defines South Korea’s education system and the irregular employment market that awaits graduates has led to rising inequality, falling birth rates, insecure employment and...
Japan’s GDP Disappoints
The US dollar closed the pre-weekend session well off its lows that were seen in response to the disappointing retail sales report. It has been unable to sustain the upside momentum, and as North American dealers prepare to return to...
Emerging Markets Officials Express Exchange Rates Concerns
EM FX ended the week on a soft note, despite the weaker than expected US retail sales report. Official concern about strong exchange rates is beginning to emerge. First, it was Korea, and then on Friday it was Brazil as...
Australian Treasurer Morrison is Blocking Chinese Investment
China’s state-owned enterprises are becoming increasingly privatised, as government involvement shifts from full control to economic guidance. This means these firms should be treated like any other foreign investor when it comes to buying Australian assets. China’s state-owned enterprises are...
Korea Gets a Credit Upgrade and Thailand’s Constitution Referendum Passes
S&P upgraded Korea a notch to AA with a stable outlook, Voters passed the constitutional referendum in Thailand by a wide margin, The IMF and Egypt have reached a staff-level agreement on a 3-year $12 bln loan program, Argentina’s central...
Is Britain in Danger of being Left Out of Globalization?
There remains great uncertainty in the aftermath of the UK vote to leave the European Union. Few seem to have a plan for what Brexit will look like and how the UK’s relationship with the outside world will take shape....
Is South Korea Facing ‘Lost Decades’?
In recent years, the South Korean economy has slowed significantly. South Korea’s average annual growth rate has fallen from a high of 9.8 percent in the 1980s to an average of just 2.7 percent over the last five years. Many...
Emerging Markets Boosted by Lower Rates
Scratch an investor, and you will find two models. One is a fair value model, perhaps based on free-cash-flow or earnings expectations, or breakup value. The other is based on liquidity. We suspect that the latter is overwhelming the former...
South Korea’s High Growth Model has its Shortcomings
Just a few decades ago, South Korea was seen as a model for achieving both growth and equity. In the past half-century, South Korea has gone from being one of the poorest societies in the world to an advanced industrialised...
Vietnam’s Regional Defense Integration Part of its Economic Future
The United States’ complete lifting of the decade-long embargo on arms sales to Vietnam marked a historic milestone in US–Vietnam relations, paving the way for a strategic partnership between the two former foes. So what will this mean for Vietnamese...
Practicing Responsible Middle-Power Diplomacy is South Korea’s Way Forward
South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se once again defended the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system on the Korean peninsula in a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in late July. Wang responded that...
How did China’s Productivity Find a Lower Gear?
China’s substantive economic slowdown following the 2008–09 global financial crisis has added fuel to the long-running debate over the sustainability of China’s growth model. Despite the government’s unprecedented stimulus package, the official statistics — though often accused of exaggerating real...
Thailand Coup Leaders’ Democracy is Lacking
More than two years since the coup, Thailand’s political situation remains volatile. The coup leaders have vowed to make Thailand more democratic and commit to political reforms. Yet the first draft of the military-sponsored constitution was rejected a year ago....
Fiji’s Rabuka Returns to Lead SODELPA
In September 2014, Prime Minster Voreqe Bainimarama’s FijiFirst party swept to victory in an election that heralded Fiji’s return to elected government, almost eight years after Bainimarama seized power in a military coup. In securing his position as a democratically...