Markets

In September 2014, Prime Minster Voreqe Bainimarama’s FijiFirst party swept to victory in an election that heralded Fiji’s return to elected government, almost eight years after Bainimarama seized power in a military coup. In securing his position as a democratically...

A spate of recently released policy documents from state governments in Australia speak clearly of China’s growing economic significance to their future. Each predicts rosy opportunities for two-way investment and a large bounty from inbound tourist flows. Contained within the...

In the aftermath of the Brexit tensions, Italy is defying Brussels to bail out troubled banks and preparing for constitutional referendum in October. If Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fails to achieve adequate support, economic destabilization will shift from the UK...

This is the period in the monthly cycle that China releases most of its high frequency data.  The process is well under way.  Over the weekend, China reported its reserve figures that suggested capital outflows have slowed. Earlier today, China...

EM ended last week on a firm note, despite the stronger than expected July jobs report.  As we suspected, one strong US data point is not yet enough to derail the dovish Fed outlook.  With the RBA and BOE cutting...

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Indonesia (+4.2%), Poland (+3.9%), and Brazil (+1.9%) have outperformed this week, while Czech Republic (-5.4%), Singapore (-1.5%), and UAE (-1.3%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose...

Since the mid-2000s, Chinese corporate debt has risen sharply as a proportion of GDP — from around 100 percent to 164 percent in 2015. By comparison, this ratio is 67 percent in the United States and 103 percent in Japan....

Americans have a saying about an 800-pound gorilla in a room.  It refers to a person or organization so powerful that it can act unilaterally.  The British have an expression about an elephant in a room.  It refers to a...

The 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal in Malaysia, which has recently become the subject of a high-profile lawsuit by the United States Department of Justice’s asset recovery initiative, highlights the problems with state-ownership in the Malaysian economy. To prevent such...

The Japanese government is delivering the other half of its fiscal policy today.  Earlier, Abe decided to postpone the sales tax hike for the second time.  Today, the cabinet approved a JPY28 trillion (5.6%) of GDP package. The Japanese government...

Assuming no surprises in the second half of the year, China’s growth in 2016 will remain near the target of 6.5 percent reflecting structural transition in the mainland, secular stagnation in the West and post-Brexit tensions globally. In mid-July, China’s...

Women in Japan voted and stood for office for the first time on 10 April 1946. It was the country’s first postwar election and the first election after the Japanese government amended the Electoral Law to include women. Of the...

China has had remarkable success in alleviating poverty. According to World Bank statistics, over the past several decades China has accounted for more than 70 percent of reductions in global poverty. The poverty-stricken population in China has plunged from 770...

Vietnam has transformed from one of the world’s poorest countries to a lower middle-income economy in just 25 years. Beginning in 1986, Vietnam undertook key structural reforms in various areas, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, private sector development, financial reform,...

EM ended last week on a firm note, helped by the weaker than expected US Q2 GDP report as well as the small bounce in oil.  With the RBA and BOE expected to ease this week, the global liquidity backdrop...