Markets

27 July 2016

Economic Impact from China’s Flooding Grows

After weeks of torrential rain across central and southern China, the mainland has suffered from a series of devastating floods. As the total price tag has soared, the impact will be felt in economic growth. By mid-July, almost 240 people...

27 July 2016

Is the U.S. Economic Recovery about to Speed Up?

This Great Graphic was tweeted by Alan Kruger (@Alan_Kruger). Drawing on official data and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker for Q2 GDP (2.4%), it shows the current business cycle in the context of a four earlier cycles. Until now, the...

26 July 2016

Thailand not Quite Prepared for the King’s Passing

After some months of uncertainty, a representative from Thailand’s Democrats Party last week declared in a televised seminar that the party would not support the proposed draft constitution in the 7 August referendum. This follows an earlier declaration from the...

25 July 2016

You Say You Want a Constitution (Change)

Following the 10 July upper house elections the Abe government now has the two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet necessary to pass constitutional amendments. So what are the likely consequences? Four years ago, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party...

25 July 2016

India’s Rexit – RBI Governor Rajan Leaves

June suffered from an excess of exits. However, none of them lived up to forecasts of dire consequences, at least for India. For now, Indian markets have shrugged off both Brexit and Rexit — the exit of Governor Raghuram Rajan...

25 July 2016

Emerging Markets Wait for FOMC Meeting

EM ended the week on a soft note, as the dollar reasserted broad-based strength against most currencies. The FOMC meeting this week could see the Fed push back against the market’s dovish take on policy, in which case EM would...

25 July 2016

An Emerging Markets Status Update

The New York Times reported that the US is preparing to seize $1 bln in assets tied to 1MDB, S&P downgraded Turkey a notch to BB with a negative outlook, citing political uncertainty, Turkish President Erdogan declared a three-month state...

21 July 2016

We’re Japan, and We’re Here to Help

Foreign aid is a key instrument of international engagement in Japan’s foreign policy toolkit. Although Tokyo is no longer the world’s top aid donor that it once was in the 1990s, it still was the world’s number four aid donor...

21 July 2016

Making Sure All Indians Participate in Economic Growth

India is set to become the world’s fastest-growing major economy this year. However, as the nation of 1.2 billion grapples with how to achieve rapid and sustainable economic growth, it must also ensure that such growth is inclusive — a...

20 July 2016

If You’re ‘Just Managing’, it’s May to the Rescue

  Theresa May has come into office talking about people who are “just managing”, but find life tough. Similarly, then Labour Party leader Ed Miliband talked about the squeezed middle in the build-up to last year’s general election.   Theresa May...

20 July 2016

Australian Poverty Drops, but Income Stagnates

Poverty in Australia has declined, welfare reliance has stabilised and long-term poverty is becoming rare - but overall economic wellbeing is no longer improving, and households’ wealth has remained static, despite rising property prices, according to Australia’s most respected longitudinal...

20 July 2016

Notoriously Inaccurate African Data Requires a Second Look

In November 2010, Ghana Statistical Services announced new and revised gross domestic product (GDP) estimates. As a result, the estimated size of the economy was adjusted upward by more than 60%, suggesting that in previous GDP estimates economic activities worth about US$13...

20 July 2016

RBA Rate Cut Risk Rises

The Australian dollar recorded a key downside reversal last Friday (July 15) and had seen follow through selling this week.  It is off 1.25% over the past three sessions, which makes it the worst performing major currency behind the Japanese...