Markets

2 September 2016

One Belt, One Road, Many Factors

Since 2013, the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiative has become the centrepiece of China’s economic diplomacy. The essence of OBOR is to promote regional and cross-continental connectivity between China and Eurasia. The ‘One Belt’ and ‘One Road’ refer to...

1 September 2016

Australian Rail…there’s a Model for that…in Florida

Australia should look at examples from the US in finding private funding for urban rail development because the present model depends on government providing the capital, which it mostly doesn’t have. Australia should look at examples from the US in finding...

1 September 2016

The Congo and the Cold War

During World War II the US sought to secure all the uranium from the Shinkolobwe mine in present-day Democratic Republic of Congo for its atomic bomb project. The ore was the richest in the world. The US, determined to prevent...

1 September 2016

How will Africa Handle New Trade Deals?

The last few months have seen some significant developments for African trade and integration. These advances come at a crucial time for African countries, which have been particularly hard hit by the slump in commodity prices, China’s economic downturn, and higher external...

1 September 2016

Encouraging Japanese Board of Director Diversity

The current potential growth rate of the Japanese economy is estimated to be less than 0.5 percent. Given Japan’s rapidly declining working-age population, it will be critical to increase the labour participation rate of women and elderly people in order...

1 September 2016

Is China’s World Order Role Exaggerated?

China’s status within the prevailing global order has sparked one of the most contested debates in international affairs. For some, it evokes their worst fears over a rising revisionist power; for others it creates inflated expectations over what the Chinese...

1 September 2016

UK Manufacturing’s PMI Upside Surprise

The new month has begun with a couple of surprises.  The biggest surprise has been the record jump in the UK manufacturing PMI to 53.3 from 48.3.  A much smaller rebound was expected in August after the Brexit shock drop...

31 August 2016

Can Thailand’s Latest Constitution Last?

The result of the Thailand’s recent referendum appeared to show an easy win to the ‘yes’ camp. Sixty-one percent of voters approved the draft constitution while 39 percent voted ‘no’. Fifty-eight percent also approved a second question, inserted at the...

30 August 2016

Old Urbanization Patterns Won’t Help a New China

China’s unprecedented growth since reforms began in the late 1970s has been accompanied by an equally transformative process of urbanisation. China’s urbanisation rate increased from 17.9 to 54.8 percent between 1978 and 2014, which represents the largest peacetime population movement...

30 August 2016

Complex, Obscure Financial Transactions behind 1MDB

Malaysia’s 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal reached a crescendo in July 2016. The US Attorney General claimed that more than US$3.5 billion belonging to 1MDB was ‘allegedly misappropriated by high-level officials of 1MDB and their associates’ between 2009 and 2015....

29 August 2016

Indonesia’s Jokowi Relying on Military Leaders

Without networks within the military, and having no effective power over the political parties, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has been constrained in his political manoeuvres. To combat this, Jokowi has installed retired army generals to important civilian posts as coordinating...

29 August 2016

Will India’s Monetary Policy Continue to Weaken Rupee?

During the second bi-monthly monetary policy decision in August this year, the Reserve Bank of India maintained the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility as unchanged at 7.25%. As a consequence, the reverse repo rate against the liquidity...

29 August 2016

Setting Up Your Emerging Markets Week

EM ended last week on a soft note, as Fed tightening expectations ratcheted up.  The December Fed funds futures contract has an implied yield of 0.5%, the highest since June 2.  Note that on June 3, US rates plunged after...

26 August 2016

Treasurer Morrison Explains Australia’s ‘Earnings Problem’

Federal treasurer Scott Morrison’s diagnosis of the risks and challenges confronting the Australian economy, as set out in his Bloomberg Address in Sydney, is hard to fault. Federal treasurer Scott Morrison’s diagnosis of the risks and challenges confronting the Australian economy, as...

26 August 2016

India, South Africa and Colombia Lead the EM Headlines

Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Patel has been named to succeed outgoing Governor Rajan; political risk is back in South Africa; the Colombian government and the FARC rebels have reached a final peace agreement; S&P cut the outlook on...