Markets
The AEC Needs to Include Unskilled Labor Migration Provisions
By the end of 2015, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) expects to establish a single market and production base in the region. With an ASEAN overall workforce of more than 300 million people, the AEC will have strong implications in...
‘Middle China’s’ Informal, Private Economy is Thriving
‘Benghai’ was changing. Returning to my old office, my home for ten years of fieldwork in rural China, it was clear something was amiss. Gone was the grizzled caretaker, listlessly following his mop around the ground floor of the four-storey...
An Emerging Markets Status Update
Over the last week, Colombia (+9.5%), Mexico (+1.9%), and Chile (+0.1%) have outperformed in the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, while Hungary (-9.6%), Turkey (-7.3%), and Russia (-5.8%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM...
Australia – More ASEAN, Less U.S./China
Things just haven’t clicked the way they should have in the Australian–ASEAN relationship. We seem far removed from the time when as Australia’s Foreign Minister I had no counterparts anywhere in the world with whom I felt more close and...
Surprise Raids in China Part of an ‘Anti-Monopoly Campaign’
Surprise raids by Chinese government officials on the offices of major multinationals in China to catch out monopolistic business activity have created perceptions of bias against foreign firms in the enforcement of the anti-monopoly law. Surprise raids by Chinese government...
Pressure on the Dollar, Possible Capital Controls in Russia, and other Global News
The US dollar extended recent losses against the euro and yen. Oil prices continue to swoon. The price of Brent oil has fallen below $60 and WTI approached $54. While most emerging market currencies are higher today, a notable exception...
How Long Can China’s ‘Catch-Up’ Growth Rate Persist?
Those in the business of long-run GDP projections expect Asia, and particularly China, to keep growing above world trend rates for some years. The most optimistic — such as former Chief Economist at the World Bank, Justin Lin — have...
Maintaining South Korea’s Middle-Power Status
Are South Korea’s relations with China and Japan warming? Are South Korea’s relations with China and Japan warming?During the ASEAN Plus Three Summit in Myanmar in November, South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye proposed a trilateral summit with China and Japan....
Reasons for Adjustments to China’s Monetary Policy
Developments in the coming days will likely push the People's Bank of China into easing monetary policy the near-term. Many have been looking for a follow up move since the PBOC surprised the market on November 21 by cutting interest...
What’s Up? – in the Emerging Markets
EM currencies remain soft ahead of the FOMC meeting Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to modify the language in its forward guidance, which would be consistent with the first rate hike that is expected around mid-2015. This would be...
The Fed Meets, Oil Prices Plunge, Abe Wins and Greece is the Word
The fundamental issue confronting investors is about supply and demand. In recent weeks, as energy prices and other industrial commodity prices fell, investors focused on supply. The stimulative effect of falling prices and the likely policy response by some major...
The AEC’s December 2015 Deadline – Too Soon?
In 2007, the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc adopted the goal of creating an integrated economic region—termed the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)—by December 2015. However, concerns have been expressed that the regional integration project’s 2015 deadline will...
China-Philippine South China Sea Dispute Approaches a Critical Point
The ongoing disputes between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea are about to reach a critical point. In January 2013 the Philippines activated procedures under Article 287 and Annex VII of the 1982 UN Convention on the...
Agriculture Reforms Unlikely to Come from Japan’s LDP
Only one party contesting this week’s Japanese election is advocating agricultural reform and it is not the LDP. Only one party contesting this week’s Japanese election is advocating agricultural reform and it is not the LDP.The party in question is...
China’s Ambition versus Reality in the Digital Age
In February 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping was appointed Chair of the Central Cybersecurity and Informatization Leading Group, an agency which coordinates China’s cybersecurity and ‘informatisation’ policies. The move reflected deep dissatisfaction within the leadership of the pace of innovation...
