Markets

6 January 2015

Low Oil Prices, for too Long, May be a Bad Thing

Oil prices are tumbling with Brent approaching $51 and WTI near $48.5.  This follows yesterday's announcement by Saudi Arabia of deeper discounts next month for the US and Europe.  This was a further confirmation that it adheres to its market...

5 January 2015

A Preview of the Emerging Markets

EM has started the year by extending many of the trends present towards the end of last year. The ruble is on the defensive along with Brazilian assets, while the Shanghai Composite continues to rally. The continued fall in oil...

5 January 2015

‘Xiism’ May be China’s New Ideology

It became clear in 2014 that Xi Jinping was the dominant leader of China. Even President Obama recognised this at the end of the year, stating that no recent Chinese leader had consolidated power as quickly as Xi since Deng...

5 January 2015

Sri Lanka’s Snap Election and Economic Reform

Sri Lanka’s president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has called a snap mid-term election on 8 January 2015, two years ahead of schedule, in a bid to win a third term in office. What was largely expected to be a one-horse race has...

5 January 2015

Is the Falling Euro Merkel and Draghi’s Fault?

In very early Asian markets, participants responded to Draghi's sovereign bond buying hints, and Merkel's seeming willingness to let Greece leave EMU by sending the euro to a low of $1.1865, according to Bloomberg.  The thin conditions exacerbated the move,...

4 January 2015

Can India Capitalize on a Landmark 2014?

India had a landmark year in 2014. A new political, cultural and economic reality is emerging. India had a landmark year in 2014. A new political, cultural and economic reality is emerging.The trend of political fragmentation that started with the...

4 January 2015

China’s New Diplomatic Strategy Receives Support from Putin

China is working to make the international order suit its interests better and put China front and centre in global affairs. Xi Jinping’s new diplomatic focus on multilateral diplomacy includes giving new profile to existing arrangements where China can lead,...

4 January 2015

Measuring ASEAN State Capacity

An embarrassing fact about ASEAN governments avoided in public policy discussions is that the capacity of most ASEAN states is quite limited — much more limited than they, and the international community, generally wish to admit. Until there is recognition...

31 December 2014

The Dollar’s Last Hurrah in 2014

The US dollar is trading with a slightly heavier bias as the last minute position adjustment takes a toll. The dollar-bloc and Scandi's are doing somewhat better and sterling is a few ticks higher, while the euro and yen are...

29 December 2014

They Make Wine in China? Why Yes, They Do

China’s wine industry has exploded in recent years, with the number of wineries more than doubling over the past decade, propelling the country past Australia to become the world’s 7th-largest producer. What is driving this fast-paced growth and is the...