Low Oil Prices, for too Long, May be a Bad Thing
Oil prices are tumbling with Brent approaching $51 and WTI near $48.5. This follows yesterday's announcement by Saudi Arabia of deeper discounts next month for the US and Europe. This was a further confirmation that it adheres to its market...
A Preview of the Emerging Markets
EM has started the year by extending many of the trends present towards the end of last year. The ruble is on the defensive along with Brazilian assets, while the Shanghai Composite continues to rally. The continued fall in oil...
‘Xiism’ May be China’s New Ideology
It became clear in 2014 that Xi Jinping was the dominant leader of China. Even President Obama recognised this at the end of the year, stating that no recent Chinese leader had consolidated power as quickly as Xi since Deng...
What are Sri Lanka President Rajapaksa’s Election Chances?
Two years before an election was due, President Percy Mahinda Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka has called an early poll for 8 January, seeking an unprecedented third term in office made possible by his revision of the constitution. Two years before...
Sri Lanka’s Snap Election and Economic Reform
Sri Lanka’s president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has called a snap mid-term election on 8 January 2015, two years ahead of schedule, in a bid to win a third term in office. What was largely expected to be a one-horse race has...
Is the Falling Euro Merkel and Draghi’s Fault?
In very early Asian markets, participants responded to Draghi's sovereign bond buying hints, and Merkel's seeming willingness to let Greece leave EMU by sending the euro to a low of $1.1865, according to Bloomberg. The thin conditions exacerbated the move,...
The Strong Dollar, Low Energy Prices and Central Bank Moves Muddy Investing Waters
The investment climate is being shaped by four forces:1. De-synchronized business cycle with the US ahead of the pack2. The prospects of sovereign bond purchases by the ECB, amid political uncertainty sparked by Geece's snap election3. The continued drop in...
Can India Capitalize on a Landmark 2014?
India had a landmark year in 2014. A new political, cultural and economic reality is emerging. India had a landmark year in 2014. A new political, cultural and economic reality is emerging.The trend of political fragmentation that started with the...
China’s New Diplomatic Strategy Receives Support from Putin
China is working to make the international order suit its interests better and put China front and centre in global affairs. Xi Jinping’s new diplomatic focus on multilateral diplomacy includes giving new profile to existing arrangements where China can lead,...
Measuring ASEAN State Capacity
An embarrassing fact about ASEAN governments avoided in public policy discussions is that the capacity of most ASEAN states is quite limited — much more limited than they, and the international community, generally wish to admit. Until there is recognition...
Should Japan Look Beyond its Borders to Stem the Population Slide?
Japan’s declining population is a serious problem. Unless the nation can devise policy strategies either to arrest the decline or deal effectively with its impacts, in the long run Japan will find its path to sustained economic growth blocked. Japan’s...
Malaysian Economy Potentially Threatened by Falling Commodity Prices
World oil prices are falling precipitously. For an oil exporter like Malaysia, that is definitely bad news. Unless the country can diversify its economy, it may find it difficult to navigate its way through the economic challenges it faces on...
The Dollar’s Last Hurrah in 2014
The US dollar is trading with a slightly heavier bias as the last minute position adjustment takes a toll. The dollar-bloc and Scandi's are doing somewhat better and sterling is a few ticks higher, while the euro and yen are...
They Make Wine in China? Why Yes, They Do
China’s wine industry has exploded in recent years, with the number of wineries more than doubling over the past decade, propelling the country past Australia to become the world’s 7th-largest producer. What is driving this fast-paced growth and is the...
China’s Challenges, though Daunting, are Surmountable
As we count down the days and now the hours towards the beginning of 2015, what preoccupies most soothsayers of the outlook for the global economy in the coming year is the shape of the Chinese economy. Nudging the United...