Plunging Oil and OPEC’s 2015 Forecast
The demand for oil in 2015 will drop to its lowest level since 2002 because of an oversupply of crude and stagnant economies in China and Europe, according to OPEC's latest forecast. And that's just one of several sour estimates. ...
A Rare Dollar U-Turn, but Persistent Themes Remain Intact
What can't go up forever apparently will not and today has seen a couple violent moves. The dollar, which has risen by more than 10% against the yen since the BOJ surprised with a 5-4 vote to accelerate its already...
There are No Outward Signs of an Abating Dollar
The US dollar remains king. It continues to receive support through the divergence in growth and interest rate differentials. Even though the ECB did not take fresh action this past week, there is little doubt that it will in early...
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Throughout 2014, financial traders around the world have been enthusiastically taking to bitcoin as a new area for speculation. Analysts, commentators and investors have all ensured that 2014, for investments at least, may well be remembered as the year of...
Draghi and Aso Speak, and Other Global Currency News
Official comments have injected volatility into the foreign exchange market. As we anticipated, Japanese officials pushed back against the seemingly free-fall in the yen sparked by the aggressive BOJ action and the diversification of the government pension funds. Finance Minister...
Economic News and Shifting Currencies
The run on the yen continues. The US dollar and euro are at new multi-year highs against the yen. The BOJ confirmed its JPY80 trillion monetary base target unexpectedly adopted at the end of last month. Last month's seemingly last...
It Shouldn’t be a Surprise that Speculators are Long Oil
Oil prices have declined for the better part of the past five months. The unexpected contraction in the Japanese economy in Q3 underscores that the strong supply growth is taking place amid weakening demand. OPEC's meeting is still ten days...
The Strong U.S. Dollar Trend Continues
It is beyond dispute. The US dollar is in a powerful bull run. There are two main drivers, and their ability to dominate the price action varies according to the news stream. The first is constructive economic news from the...
The Biggest Banks Pay For Foreign Exchange Market Fixing
Suppose you’re in the supermarket shopping for groceries. While you’re strolling the aisle with your cart, a shadowy figure looms over your shoulder and changes the prices on the items you want to buy before you get a chance to...
A Slumping Yen Trumps a Better Dollar Bid
While the US dollar has come back bid today, the real story is the drop in the Japanese yen. The yen is off almost 1% against the US dollar and nearly as much against the euro. The greenback poked through...
Supportive Fundamentals Exist While Dollar Technicals Stretch
The underlying driver of the foreign exchange market is the divergence between the US and the other high-income countries. This was underscored in the past couple of weeks. Between the BOJ and the government's pension fund, monetary stimulus and capital...
A mixed U.S. dollar Pre-Jobs Data and other News
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as the market awaits for North American jobs data to close out the week. It has been another good week for the greenback. It has appreciated against all the major and emerging market currencies....
The Appetite for ‘Dim Sum’ Bonds is Beginning to Wane
The offshore renminbi bond market has boomed since the Chinese authorities first allowed domestic banks to issue them in Hong Kong in June 2007. But appetite for the paper — popularly known as ‘dim sum bonds’ — is starting to...
Forex Volatility Levels Have Crept Higher
In March of this year, forex volatility was about as lifeless across GBP, DXY, EUR and JPY as it had been for the past five years: pretty much matching a low in October 2012. In April, volatility across those currencies...
A Currency Review and Futures Report
The US dollar had a good week to close out October. It was bolstered to new highs against the euro and yen. It is driven by both positive developments in the US and negative developments in Europe and Japan. ...