Currencies

23 May 2016

Waiting on Japanese Data, the Yen is Up for Now

The yen is the strongest of the major currencies.  It has gained about 0.65% against the dollar.  It has been grinding lower throughout the Asian and European session and has remained in narrow ranges near its highs in the US...

16 May 2016

The Dollar Index has been Up for Five Weeks

The US dollar continued the recovery begun May 3 and rose against most of the major currencies over the past week.  A nearly 3.5% rally in oil prices, the fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks (a $9.5 advance...

11 May 2016

Currency Cautiousness Creeping in ahead of Next G7 Meeting

The Japanese yen is recovering from two-day two percent decline.  The yen is the strongest of the majors today, rising about 0.6%.  The greenback initially extended its gains marginally in early Tokyo before the selling pressure emerging.  The price action...

10 May 2016

Has the Dollar Entered a New, Bullish Phase?

Sometimes the mountain looks clearer from the plain the summit to paraphrase an American-Lebanese poet.  The dollar appears to have entered a new phase on May 3.  On that day, it reversed higher against the euro, yen, and sterling for...

4 May 2016

How About That Loonie, eh?

It has been painful trying to pick a bottom of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.  Now a 4-5 point downtrend from the secondary high in late-January is being violated today.  It is found near CAD1.2785 today.  Intraday penetration...

2 May 2016

Holding on to the Dollar’s Null Hypothesis

In quiet turnover, with China, Hong Kong, Singapore and London markets closed, the US dollar is trading with a heavier bias against all the major currencies.  Lower commodity prices, including oil and copper, appears to be taking a toll on...

24 April 2016

Bailing at the Bottom?

Speculators in the futures market continued to press a bearish view of the US dollar the CFTC reporting week ending April 19.  According to the Commitment of Traders report, speculators added to their gross long currency futures position in seven...

17 April 2016

Are the Canadian and Australian Dollars Overextended?

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week, which given the softer than expected inflation, retail sales data, and industrial output figures, coupled with the poor technical backdrop, could be a signal that its decline in recent months...

15 April 2016

Does China Understand the SDR’s Function?

At the IMF/World Bank meetings this week, Chinese officials are again pushing for greater use of the IMF's unit of account, Special Drawing Rights.  It is China's turn as the rotating host of the G20, which gives it greater influence...

12 April 2016

Searching for One Yen Narrative is a Narrow View

Every so often, a market move appears inexplicable.  The conundrum now is the yen's strength.  Of course, there are numerous attempts shed light on the yen's rise, but many, like ourselves, are not very satisfied.  Perhaps part of the problem...

11 April 2016

Dollar to Yen: You’re Move is Getting Sleepy

The yen's surge may be easing.  It made a new marginal high in Asia, but it was unsustainable.  Technically, a hammer candlestick pattern may be traced out by the greenback's recovery today.  Supporting the greenback is the movement in interest...

7 April 2016

Technical Indicators Giving Up on the Aussie Dollar

The yen's surge in recent days has captured the attention of investors and policymakers alike.  It is indeed unsettling and seems to run counter to the economic logic negative interest rates, which the BOJ surprised the market with at the...

7 April 2016

The Yen’s Rise is Looking for a Good Explanation

The main feature in the foreign exchange market continues to be the surge of the Japanese yen.  A convincing explanation of the yen's strength seems elusive.  Until last week, which means through the fiscal year-end last month, Japanese fund managers...