Economics

In 2009, Myanmar agreed on the huge dam project with Chinese contractors; in 2011, it was suspended. As the new government must decide its future, it is closely watched by both Chinese and international investors. In 2009, after years of...

The White Queen in Alice in Wonderland (Through the Looking Glass) confesses that when she was younger, she could believe six impossible things before breakfast.  She encourages Alice to do the same.  It appears many in the market are taking the...

Two main forces in the foreign exchange market are rippling through the capital markets.  The first is the continued weaker dollar tone.  The combination of what appears to be a stagnating US economy (0.5% annualized pace in Q1) and a...

The foreign aid arena in Africa has traditionally been dominated by the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. However, over the past three decades non-traditional donors such as China have emerged. The foreign aid arena in Africa has traditionally been...

One can appreciate the frustration in Tokyo. The Bank of Japan surprised the world by adopting negative rates in January and the yen rallied. Today it disappointed many by not easing, and the yen rallied. The BOJ next meetings in...

The Bank of Japan defied expectations and its economic assessment to leave policy unchanged.  The inaction spurred a 3% rally in the yen and an even larger slump in stocks.  The financial sector took its the hardest and dropped almost...

The FOMC delivered a statement largely as expected.  It upgraded its assessment of the global economy by dropping the reference to risks.  It downgraded its assessment of the domestic economy by acknowledging that growth has slowed.  The FOMC delivered a...

ASEAN is on the lookout for ways to accelerate trade facilitation and eliminate trade barriers by 2025 under its new 10-year ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) roadmap. Extensive research has demonstrated the vital role of global value chains (GVCs) in enhancing...

Under Kuroda's leadership, the BOJ has surprised the market a number of times, most recently with the move to negative rates at the end of January.  Under Kuroda's leadership, the BOJ has surprised the market a number of times, most...

In the past six years, Washington and Manila have been cementing a military alliance, which is reassuring to many Filipinos but leaves some apprehensive – including the leading presidential contenders. In the past six years, Washington and Manila have been...

The foreign exchange market is largely quiet as the market awaits fresh trading incentives and the FOMC statement later in the North American session.  The main exception to the consolidative tone is the Australian dollar, which is posting its largest...

After years of talks, negotiators concluded an agreement on the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in October 2015. Since China is excluded from the TPP, one would expect antagonism rather than symbiosis between the Washington-advocated trade package and Beijing’s One Belt,...

China is experiencing the most sustained domestic political crackdown since Tiananmen Square. Much attention has been devoted to the increasing state repression being directed at lawyers, journalists and civil society activists. However, there is a separate and more fundamental concern....

The gains the US dollar registered in the second half are being pared, but it is sterling's strength that stands out.  It is difficult to attribute it to Obama's push against Brexit, but there does appear to have been a...

We expect the FOMC statement this week to recognize the improvement in the global conditions that have been an increasing worry for officials over Q1.  At the same, time the soft patch of the US economy is undeniable.   We suspect...