Economics

9 May 2016

Searching for Dollar-strength Follow Through

The key issue facing the foreign exchange market is whether the modicum of strength the US dollar demonstrated last week is the beginning of a sustainable move.  It is possible that the market is again at a juncture in which...

9 May 2016

Is This What a Dollar Bottom Looks Like?

The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week. The importance of the price action does not lie with the magnitude or the breadth of the advance. Instead, the two takeaway technical observations are 1) the seemingly one-way...

5 May 2016

The Southeast Asia IS Threat Looms Large

Terrorism is not a new phenomenon in Southeast Asia, but goes as far back as the era of anti-colonial struggle. It gathered pace after September 11 with a series of attacks perpetrated mostly by the Al-Qaeda linked organisation Jemaah Islamiyah....

5 May 2016

Intrafirm Trade and the Complex Supply Chain

This Great Graphic was posted by Eric Nelson, the managing editor of the Chamber of Commerce's Above the Fold Publication. It shows many of the different components of the 737 single-aisle airplane and where they are sourced. This Great Graphic...

5 May 2016

A Busy End of the Week Leads with a Firmer Dollar

The US dollar is firm, near the best levels of the week against the euro, yen, and sterling. However, against the dollar-bloc and several actively traded emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, the greenback has...

4 May 2016

The U.S. May Get Trumped

This Great Graphic is a 90-day history of the "betting" at PredictIt that Trump becomes the new US President.  With Cruz suspending his campaign, the odds of Trump have risen just above 40%.  The US national interests and challenges to...

4 May 2016

IMF Says Global Economic Growth Powered by Asia

Many may think that the United States or Europe, as the location of most of the world’s most developed nations, would be driving global economic growth. Asia, however, is actually the area driving global economic growth this year, according to...

4 May 2016

Was Indiana Good for the Dollar?

Has the dollar turned now that Cruz dropped out of the Republican primary and Trump has secured the nomination?  The greenback has extended yesterday's reversal higher. The euro had briefly poked through $1.16 and closed on its lows a little...

3 May 2016

India’s Got Talent…for Japan

There is a popular saying among Indians that ‘Dubai is the best-run Indian city’. Hundreds of thousands of Indians, as well as others from the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia, have been making a living in the Gulf region through...

3 May 2016

That European Vacation is Getting Expensive

The US dollar's downtrend is extending.  The euro traded above $1.16 for the first time since last August. With Japanese markets closed for the second half of the Golden Week holidays, perhaps participants felt less hampered by the risk of...

2 May 2016

Memo to the FOMC: Stay in Your Lane

This Great Graphic was posted by Hale Stewart on Seeking Alpha. It draws on US government data to show the increase in the median asking rent for vacant units since 1995.  There are other measures of rent, including rent on...

1 May 2016

The Dollar Has Seen Better Days

April was a cruel month for the US dollar.  It fell against all the major currencies; even those whose central banks have negative yields.  The greenback also fell against nearly all the emerging market currencies, but the Philippine peso and...