Economic Conditions

The Greek drama is approaching the long awaited climax. An emergency heads of state summit will be held on Monday, followed by the regularly scheduled summit later in the week. At the same time, the banking crisis threatens to eclipse...

The US dollar has continued to sell-off post-FOMC meeting against most of the major currencies.  The euro traded above $1.14 for the first time in a month.  Sterling moved above $1.59 to new highs for the year.  The dollar has...

The recent general election offered the electorate a big fiscal choice over the speed and extent to which the deficit, and public spending, should be cut. The electorate plumped for the bigger, swifter cuts on offer. However, we were not...

It was supposed to be all about the Federal Reserve today, but the strong UK's weekly earnings data has sent sterling to four-week highs and brought forward market-based measures of the BOE's first rate hike.  Previously, the SONIA forwards had...

The historical production-reproduction divide held that mothers are the chief caregivers of children and men are providers. However, this division has fallen rapidly and rightfully by the wayside in much of the world and in most households. Women now make...

Any attempt to bridge the divide between scholars and policy-makers in international affairs is so welcome that I could not help but applaud this book, “Scholars, Policymakers, and International Affairs: Finding Common Cause”. The sad truth, however, is that after...

The FOMC meeting is the most important economic event next week.  The implications are much broader than the impact on the US dollar, which has surprisingly not reacted to the recent string of strong economic data.  This month's FOMC meeting...

The US dollar's losses have accelerated.  The key drivers are not domestic but emanate from Europe and Japan.  Evidence continues to accumulate that point to a moderate recovery in the US economy.  The JOLTS data showed job openings are at...

First, monthly jobs growth exceeded expectations, as employers hired 280,000 people. Second, the labor force participation rate ticked up, indicating that people who had stopped looking for work were becoming more optimistic about finding a job and thus had resumed...

The last time a horse won the Triple Crown was at the start of the first dollar rally after Bretton Woods collapsed.  It has been 37 years and we think that dollar has begun its third rally since Nixon took...

The US May jobs reported was stronger than expected.  Although it will not boost the chances of a Fed rate hike later this month, a September lift-off still seems like the most likely scenario. The US May jobs reported was...

The US dollar is sliding across the board, but the impetus is not coming from the United States.  If anything, the combination of the strong auto sales figures, smaller trade deficit, and ADP jobs estimate underscore the fact that the...

Sterling's seven day losing streak appears to be ending today with the help of a stronger than expected construction PMI.  The Nikkei's 12-day rally streak ended today with a minor loss, helped by profit-taking in the financials and energy space. ...

The notion of a ‘middle-income trap’ has entered the lexicon of policymakers in emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere. Many leaders of countries that have experienced fast growth — such as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang — worry that economic growth...

It is not that May did not have its challenges.  The German bund extended flash crash had knock-on effects throughout the capital markets. The dollar, which had been trending lower since mid-March, staged an impressive rally in the second half...