Economic Conditions

Contrasting data releases underscore the reemergence of the dollar bullish divergence meme that had appeared to stall in the vacuum of economic data in the first half of the week. Yesterday's unexpectedly large fall in US weekly initial jobless claims...

The Office for National Statistics has produced a report on sales of popular summer-related products. Official data on sales of goods are limited in that they tend to be based on annual spending, but clearly the demand for some products...

Some have asked what Africa can learn from Greece.  I argue that Greece (and others) can learn a lot from the African experience. Debt is on the rise again not just in Greece, but also across the world. A decline...

It is quite clear that a euro in Germany is not the same as a euro in Greece or Cyprus or even France. This disturbs many people who believe the having a single currency for such diverse countries does not...

The Greek government has capitulated on nearly all of European demands, seeming averting an unceremonious exit from the monetary union. The Greek parliament must now pass six reform bills that the recent referendum had appeared to reject.   The Greek government...

Developments in both Europe and China will likely encourage risk taking in the days ahead. Our reading of the dollar's technical condition warns of near-term vulnerability.  The yen is likely to underperform as the crosses adjust.   Neither the US economic...

Experimental economics is not really a new theory but a (still) relatively new method of studying the kind of questions that economists have studied for ages. However, the addition of the experimental method to the economist’s toolbox is remarkable for...

The global capital markets have stabilized. Chinese and Japanese shares initially sold off, but both recovered.  Chinese officials have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the stock market in hopes of stabilizing it.  There was some success today.  The...

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 underlined the need for central banks and financial regulators to take a macroprudential perspective on financial risk, i.e., to monitor and regulate the buildup of systemic financial risk in the economy as a whole,...

The US dollar is enjoying broad gains today.  It is extending its recent gains after a consolidative session yesterday as investors tried digesting the weekend developments.  The yen is the sole exception among the majors.  It is managing to hold...

The global capital markets responded in a typical risk-off fashion to the sharp victory in Greece for the rejection of the creditors' demands.  However, by the time European markets opened, some semblance of stability emerged and European equities gapped lower,...

Polls indicate that the outcome of the Greek referendum is too close to call.  However, the results of the Scottish Referendum and the British national election are fresh our memories, and the polls there provided little guidance.  While there is...

1.  FX Price Action:  The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies.  The notable exception is the Australian dollar.  It has been sold to new six-year lows to near $0.7500.  Recall that is the level that...

The US dollar has been trending gently higher against the major currencies over the past 3-4 sessions but is trading heavier today.  It is largely within yesterday's trading range.  The two main drivers remain Greece and the US economy. The...

In 2010-2012, we thought speculation of a Greek exit were over the top.  Some bookmakers suggested the odds that Greece would leave were as high as 70%.  As the crisis flared up again in late 2014, and here in 2015,...