Economic Conditions
The U.K. Election is Underway and has Eurozone Economic Growth Surpassed the U.S.?
The dramatic sell-off in European bonds continues apace today. In part, sparked by the easing of deflation pressure, there is a taper tantrum of sorts playing out. The 10-year German bund yield is up 18 bp to 76 bp. Recall...
Data Show a Drop in UK Living Standards, Unless Your Rich
The state of living standards in the UK has been a hotly contested issue in the build-up to the country’s general election. The coalition government has argued that living standards have increased since it came to power in 2010. The...
There is More to the Minimum Wage than a “Living Wage”
On April 1, in an announcement that just a year or two ago might have been seen as an April Fools’ prank, McDonald’s said that by July 1 it would raise wages to at least one dollar above the local...
The U.S. Jobs Report, U.K. Election and Less Pessimism Over Greece
The beginning of a new month starts the usual cycle of economic data. Among these, only the US employment report is significant. A weak report would not only rule out a June hike by the Fed, but would call a...
Asymmetric Dollar Trading Speaks to the Current Market Psychology
The broad-based dollar sell-off this week has considerably narrowed. The dollar's losses have become move concentrated in the post-FOMC sessions with just the euro sustaining the momentum and extending this week's gains. The broad-based dollar sell-off this week has considerably...
Oil Sector Job Loss Spillover Effects are Unknown
Outside of an individual's oil stock holdings, damage to the economy from the fall in oil has been pretty minimal so far. Indeed, the price cut in home heating oil and gasoline has probably outweighed the damage from lower oil...
Helping Consumers Make the Right Choice with a ‘Nudge’
Consumers today have easy access to a wide range of products and services. The task of choosing between hundreds of products or packages each having dozens of different fees however, is the opposite of easy. Consumers today have easy access...
The FOMC Meeting Begins, and the Market Waits
The US dollar has yet to stabilize against the euro and sterling, although it has steadied against the dollar-bloc currencies and yen. The euro bid through the $1.10 level on the back of stronger month supply growth and the first...
Potential Avenues to Take Through the Second Economic Transition
We are at the beginning of a second big transition. Our economies, our work and our lives will change hugely as we slowly adjust to the new demands of a technological age that could go one of two ways: towards...
Factors Affecting Corporate Earnings Go Far Beyond a Strong Dollar
The US corporate earnings season is almost half over. Fears that the US S&P 500 would report the first decline in income since 2009 have eased. One of the key reasons is that operating margins appear to have improved more...
As Economic Data Pours In, the Dollar is on the Defensive
The US dollar remains on the defensive even after both Japan and the UK disappoint. Japan reported an unexpected 1.9% decline in March retail sales. The UK's initial estimate of Q1 15 GDP was 0.3%, below expectations for a 0.5%...
Remittances are Reducing Poverty, but Can They Do More?
Over the past decade, many developing countries have made substantial progress toward reducing poverty, and remittances sent by migrant workers have hugely contributed to this progress. Over the past decade, many developing countries have made substantial progress toward reducing poverty,...
Investors Start the Week Waiting for Economic Data
With several central bank meetings this week, including the Federal Reserve, and Q1 GDP figures from the UK, US and Spain, and month-end position adjustments, ahead of the May 1 holiday, it promises to be an eventful week. However, it...
This Week: US Q1 GDP, an FOMC meeting and Japanese PM Abe Addresses Congress
A disappointing string of data challenges ideas that the US economy had returned to a growth path that was sufficiently strong enough to permit the Federal Reserve to begin normalizing monetary policy. This will culminate with the first estimate of...
Volatile Durable Goods in the U.S. and Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet Over Greece
The US dollar is softer against all the major currencies today, led by the euro and sterling. The main exception is the New Zealand dollar. Dovish comments by the deputy governor of the RBNZ fanning speculation of an easing bias...
