US Unemployment Now Key to Future of the Global Economy
29 September, 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist. The global economy has been built around the US consumer since 1947. US consumers, however, won't resume buying until they have jobs and can keep them. Since US Unemployment won't drop any time soon, the world economy is still mired in difficulty.
25 September, 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist. The global economic leadership needed to get us out of our current mess seems absent - with the possible exception of China. In both the US and UK, liquidity and the big banks have become a quasi-religion - despite the warnings of two establishment blue bloods. True leadership seems elusive until that "faith" changes.
24 September, 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist. One of the few relatively recession-proof industries is education. With exponentially growing numbers of Chinese and Indians being willing and able to buy higher ed, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia are looking to capitalize on that demand.
23 September 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist. The Chinese are using a mixture of aid and trade to expand their influence internationally, sometimes in dubious ways. But before westerners get too high-and-mighty about these sort of practices, they would do well to remember that the US/ Europe/ Japan travelled this path for decades.
22 September 2009. By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist. Although China and the US are now so intertwined economically they are called Chimerica, and although there are obvious problems with how bank loans in China are being given out and spent, China is clearly in ruder economic health - and with a better banking system - than the US.
18 September, 2009. What happens when corporations hold sway over the government agencies that are supposed to regulate them? Corruption, loss of income for Americans, and a sleazefest that "reads like a script from a tv miniseries -- and one that cannot air during family viewing time."
The Man Who SHOULD Head Treasury
17 September, 2009.The reason that a problem in the money world was magnified into a Great Recession in the real economy was derivatives deregulation - championed under Clinton by Rubin, Summers and Geithner. Real change would have come from putting someone like Stiglitz in charge.
First, Kill All the Accountants
16 September, 2009. Shakespeare said First, Kill all the Lawyers - but today it is bank accountants who do the most damage, hiding the truth by changing, subverting or ignoring disclosure rules. International accounting regulators want stronger rules that promote transparency, but they are under at times intense political pressure to help the banks.
A Tale of Two Wall Streets
15 September, 2009. While Obama panders to Wall St, Judge Rakoff rules that the settlement between the SEC and the Bank of America, a punishment for paying bonuses to Merrill Lynch employees without notifying shareholders, was an illegal act of collusion.
Wall Street Crash: One Year After Meltdown,
Has Wall St Changed?
Wall Street, New York, US, 14 September 2009. Has Wall Street changed, one year after meltdown? Maybe, but it's pretty hard to see how. It seems more likely that the bankers are driving the agenda in Washington - and that agenda is more of the same.
The Political Economist
Welcome Dr. David Caploe
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The Political Economist: David Caploe PhD to Lead EconomyWatch.com Editorial Team
Singapore, 11 September 2009. Introducing David Caploe PhD, the new Chief Political Economist of EconomyWatch.com, who will lead what has become the largest independent economics community online (with over 500,000 participants) to new heights. Dr David has studied at Harvard and Princeton, and has since taught, written and filmed around the world.
Chief Economist Dr. Hosni Afleck will be leaving to pursue academic research, but will continue to post as a guest contributor.
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United Nations: Drop the US Dollar as World Reserve Currency
New York, United States, 9 September, 2009. The United Nations has stepped into the debate on the future of the US Dollar - to urge that it be dropped as the world's reserve currency. What was once seen as a slightly crackpot idea has quickly gained traction in world capitals, particularly Beijing, Moscow and Tehran, but this is the first time that a world organisation has openly taken this position.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Back at Pre-Lehman Highs, But for How Long?
Hong Kong SAR, China, 8 September 2009. If you are an emerging markets investor, you may be forgiven for asking 'Financial Crisis? What Financial Crisis?' - because emerging market stocks are now back at pre-crisis, pre-Lehman collapse levels. Whether this level is sustainable is an altogether different question.
Economic Recovery: The Shape of Things to Come
Vienna, Austria, 6 September 2009. Coffee shop talk among economists, investors and business people alike has increasingly turned to one topic; what shape will the recovery take. And the discussion sounds more like an episode of Sesame Street with each passing day.
September - not October - is the Worst Month for Stocks
New York, USA, 2 September 2009.. October, for many investors, is the bogeyman month. It is the month when you need to be out of the market or risk losing your pants. This 'truth' is so deeply ingrained in the seasoned investor's psyche that the real truth may come as a bit of a surprise.
Japan Elections: After DPJ Landslide, can the Japanese Economy be Reformed?
Tokyo, Japan, 31 August 2009. Monday's landslide elections which saw the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) assume control after nearly 50 years of LDP rule begs one question: Will the new party be able to pull Japan out of its economic troubles?
Bank Failures: 1,000 Banks to Fail, FDIC Running out of Money
Baltimore, USA, 30 August 2009. "I think we'll lose 1,000 banks out of the system...over the next two years. We've already lost 81 this year. The numbers are climbing everyday. Now many of these institutions nobody has heard of," said John Kanas, whose firm bought over Florida's BankUnited in May.
The World's Largest Companies in 2009
Beijing, China, 27 August 2009. There is a lot of talk of the balance of power shifting from the West to Asia, but is it really happening? According to the list of the largest companies in the world in by market capitalization in 2009 - yes it is. China's top companies command more market cap than those from the US.
Sugar Prices: The Next Bull Market
Singapore, 26 August, 2009. Veteran investor Jim Rogers is confident sugar trading will return some sweet profits in the coming years. Rogers knows a thing or two about profits, having founded The Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1970. But why sugar?
Most and Least Expensive Cars to Insure
Assuming you can still afford to drive, knowing what are the most and least expensive cars to drive in terms of their insurance premiums can be important. In this guest post, we look at the most and least expensive cars to insure in the US today.
India Drought: Will it Affect Indian Economic Growth?
New Delhi, India, 24 August, 2009. For seven years, India has enjoyed good rains - admittedly sometimes too good - and farmers and the retailers who served them have prospered. With more than half the country now experiencing drought, the good times have come to an end.
China Trade Surplus: The Great (Re-) Balancing Act
Shanghai, China, 19 August 2009. Western Economists have long attacked China's trade surplus as being a great source of economic imbalance in the world. But as with so many other things, those economists are probably wrong. Excessive investment is the true Chinese structural imbalance.
High Frequency Trading (HFT): Wall Street's Latest Scam
Wall St, New York, USA, 17 August 2009.
"It appears exchanges are conspiring with a privileged group of high-frequency traders in a massive fraud," Fund Manager Whitney Tilson.
Oil Prices Could Hobble Global Economic Recovery
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 15 August 2009. The Chief Economist of the IEA has warned that oil prices staying about $70 a barrel could threaten the strength of the global recovery.
This is a timely warning as oil prices once again edge over the $70 mark, as they have for most of August. Why that is the case, however, is generating some debate.
Brazil: The Samba Economy
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 14 August 2009. Aah. Brasil. Endless sandy beaches. Beautiful boys juggle footballs, the girls sun their perfect bodies, ready for carnival. A place of pleasure, certainly, but not a place where money is invested wisely, surely?
Singapore GDP Rockets Up 20.7 Per Cent in Q2 2009 - Is the Boom Back?
Singapore, 12 August 2009. In better than expected results, Singapore GDP grew 20.7 per cent over Q1 2009. Has Asia decoupled after all, and is the beginning of the recovery here? Or is it the first part of a W-shaped recession?
European Economic Geography
Rome, Italy, 11 August 2009. In the fourth and final installment of our series on Economic Geography, we look at why Europe will never fully unify, and which European countries have better and worse natural advantages.
Chinese Economic Geography
Rome, Italy, 10 August 2009. The third installment of our series on Economic Geography. For five thousand years China has maintained a unified and independent status through skillful political and military organisation built around a strong center, which currently sits in geographically poor Beijing. It manages that today through largess, particularly mandated bank loans and funding for mega projects.
Russian Economic Geography
Rome, Italy, 9 August 2009. This is the second in the series of 4 articles on how geography shapes politics - and military strategy. Although on the surface Russia may appear to have many of America's advantages, it is almost is complete opposite. This has always shaped both its economy and its geopolitical stance - and always will.
US Economic Geography
Rome, Italy, 6 August 2009. This is the first in the series of 4 articles on the surprisingly large role that geography plays in shaping national economics.Rivers offer irrigation and shipping, and ports give access to international trade. The US, Russia, China, and Europe all have dissimilar geographies, and thus their economic mandates and priorities are different.
The Nabucco Pipeline: Turkey, Russia and Petro-politics
Ankara, Turkey, 5 August 2009. The Nabucco pipeline is supposed to free much of Europe and Central Asia from their dependency on Russia for energy, but it is also fast becoming a pivot point for negotiations in Ankara's aspirations.
The Future of Economic Reforms in Indonesia
Jakarta, Indonesia, 4 August 2009. This huge nation of 17,508 islands, over 300 ethno-linguistic groups and a population of 237 million has long suffered from corruption and instability, but with the landslide re-election of SBY to a second term as President, and World Bank predictions that Indonesia will emerge a 'winner' from the global down turn, hopes are high for economic reform.
Mexico's Arms Trade Economics
Mexico City, Mexico, 3 August 2009. With vast sums of money to be made smuggling drugs into the US, Mexico's drug cartels are becoming increasingly more sophisticated. Not only are they exhibiting a military level of organisation in they way they fight - and defeat - law enforcement officials, they have sourced a worldwide network of arms suppliers.
World Trade Shrinks 10 Percent, Asia Leading the Recovery
Singapore, 2 August 2009. The WTO reported that world trade will slide 10 percent in 2009, with Asia being the leader in the recovery. The WTO's June forecast was that global trade would drop only 9 percent.
Why Legalising - And Taxing - Marijuana Is Great Economics
Oakland, California, USA, 1 August 2009. One of the problems with drugs is they usually cost a lot and are addictive. But what if we could put that money to good use and get the government addicted? This is part of the strategy being used by those who want marijuana not only legal, but taxed.
India's Anomalous Media Industry sees Go-Go Growth
Mumbai, India, 31 July 2009. As most of the Western world sees a dramatic decline in print media revenues India is witnessing a new era in newspaper, TV, radio and web growth.
Coming Soon: The Great Bubble of China
Beijing, China, 30 July 2009. China is growing at an amazing rate, and when the global economic crisis comes to a close this incredible power will inevitably emerge with more momentum than ever. But this has to taper off eventually, and when it does, it will be more than just a decline. We will see that great bubble burst.
Asia Leads Recovery - in Global Consumer Confidence
Manila, Philippines, 29 July, 2009. It's consumer confidence that drives markets and precedes recovery, and if the latest poll about economic sentiment around the world means anything, we could be in for good times.
Canada: The Best Advanced Economy in the World
Vancouver, Canada, 28 July 2009. As Americans, we often jokingly poke fun at our northern neighbor by referring to Canada as the "51st state". We say they talk funny; their baseball is no good, and their beer is overpriced. And don't forget the ice hockey jokes. But really, I think we're just jealous.
DIY House Price Forecasting
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, 27 July 2009. Predicting markets is something that investors have been trying to do for centuries, with limited success. What if you had the key to real estate forecasting? There are a few models which may hold the secret.
Need a Kidney? NJ Rabbis can give you a Good Deal
Deal, New Jersey, USA, 26 July 2009. Organ trafficking, money laundering and corruption are just some of the crimes to allegedly have been committed by a ring which included three NJ mayors, five rabbis, two state assemblymen, and a city council president.
Europe to Invest $560 Billion in Middle East Solar Energy
Munich, Germany, 24 July 2009. A groundbreaking project to build massive solar farms in North Africa and the Middle East to supply Europe with clean power has begun.
New Healthcare Reform Plan Critical to Obama
Washington DC, USA, 23 July 2009. Both Clinton and Obama were elected with key policy plans for healthcare. Clinton's didn't work out so well. While Obama is still popular, his ratings are starting to suffer during uncertain economic times and unproven healthcare policy. Will his healthcare plans fail too?
Total Solar Eclipse Presents Unique Investment Opportunity
Varanasi, India, 22 July 2009. A total solar eclipse darkened much of India, China, Iwo Jima Japan, and other parts of Asia today. Superstition and old wives' tales seemed to prevail, and the most interesting was perhaps that India's Sesnex would drop.
The Free Economy is a Pipe Dream
Singapore, 21 July, 2009. By 'free economy' we are not talking about an economic system or even Friedman's admiration for economic freedom. We are talking about
gratis, on the house, free of charge.
Governments Need to Borrow $5 Trillion in 2009: Who Foots the Bill?
Omaha, USA, 20 July 2009. $5 trillion is needed by governments around the world to pay for deficit spending for the rest of the year, and the US will need about $3 trillion of that. Where will it all come from?
Latvian Hooker Index: No Recovery in Sight
Riga, Latvia, 19 July 2009. The Latvian Hooker Index is not showing any signs that the economy is on a rebound. Prices still linger at around US $60, showing signs of deflation and a general slump in the Baltics.
Old Media is Dying
London, UK, 18 July, 2009. Traditional print media is struggling to survive with the ubiquity of the web, citizen reporters, and media habits we don't even understand yet.
Civil War Threatens Nigeria - and Global Oil Supplies
Lagos, Nigeria, 18 July, 2009. Political and economic instability worsen in Nigeria as militants attack various oil facilities, sabotage wells, and kill hostages.
Rio Tinto: Industrial Espionage in China
Beijing, China, 17 July 2009. China is extending its investigation into the Rio Tinto crackdown to other mining firms. Tensions rise as the nation attempts to tighten its grip on corruption and social unrest during these times of economic chaos.
Of Goldmans, Bonuses and Taxpayers
New York, USA, 16 July 2009. As Goldman Sachs announces $3.4 billion in profit for the second quarter, people are wondering if it will return to its old practice of massive bonuses and huge pay, and whether or not such excesses will be at the taxpayers' expense.
Indian Infrastructure: The Same Old Story
Delhi, India, 15 July 2009. The Delhi metro was supposed to be the best-run project in India, an example of the new modern infrastructure that would transform the country. In reality, it is an example of the corruption, greed and incompetence - the same old India but with more money.
A History of World Financial Crises
Boston, USA, 14 July 2009. It is often said that those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it. With economics it's no different, considering the world has experienced dozens of crashes and recessions, undoubtedly caused by acquisitive traders and lawmakers with few memories of the past. So let us review past crashes - hopefully we won't repeat them.
Emerging Markets Fund: How to Buy the Recovery
Singapore, 12 July, 2009. As Wall Street shows signs of recovery, many investors are watching emerging markets. They could very well prove to be the markets to invest in as we pull out of the economic crisis.
Second Stimulus: Too Soon to Discuss or Too Late to Implement?
Washington DC, US, 11 July 2009. Obama's stimulus package has been criticized for being both too small and too big, but most economists are against more such stimulus, despite the dismal economic outlook.
Economic Forecast 2009 - 2010: IMF Raises GDP Growth Expectations
Singapore, 9 July 2009. After two years of cuts in forecasts, the IMF has upgraded its world growth forecast for 2010 to 2.5 per cent.
Personal Tax Down & Fiscal Deficits Up in Indian Union Budget 2009-2010
New Delhi, India, 7 July 2009. India's 2009-10 budget was announced yesterday which gives increases in personal tax exemption limits. It also enacts a wide rage of stimulus measures spanning a variety of industries. This is despite a growing fiscal deficit.
Iraq Oil: China Wants Iraqi Oil Fields - Even if They Lose Money
Baghdad, Iraq, 6 July 2009. Iraq is in the process of holding auctions for energy contracts to develop its massive oil fields, the third largest reserves in the world. The first auction was just completed, and only closed one deal. The Chinese were part of every consortium that bid and want to win even if they lose money - which is handy, because the Iraqi's don't want anyone to make too big a profit.
Loan Sharks: Loans from Hell
Newcastle, UK, 5 July 2009. With the Financial Crisis hitting many people hard, loan sharks are proliferating world wide. The cost may be much higher than the exorbitant interest rates charged, however.
Economic Survey: India Could Achieve 7% Growth in 2009
New Delhi, India, 2 July 2009. India could achieve 7 Per Cent GDP growth in 2009, and then return its previous 9 per cent plus showing from 2010, but only if significant financial reforms are enacted. That was the verdict of the annual India Economic Survey of 2008 - 2009.
Is Madoff a Scapegoat Covering Up for Wall St?
New York, NY, USA, 1 July 2009. As Bernie Madoff is sentenced to 150 years in prison some think he's merely a scapegoat in what many call the end of capitalism. While his $65 billion fraud ruined the lives of thousands, Wall St titans have left all of us - and our children - with gargantuan debts.
Reserve Currency: China Says Move Beyond the US Dollar, Calls for a New Super-Sovereign Currency
Beijing, China, 29 June 2009. It's no secret that for some time now, China has toyed with the idea of moving away from the US dollar as its reserve currency. And that desire has probably never been stronger as China shudders at the thought of US dollar inflation which would slash the value of its 1.3 trillion in US reserves.
He-cession: The Recession is an Economic Crisis for Men
Eugene, OR, USA, 28 June. Men caused the global recession, and now they are the ones hurting. At least that's what those who dub it a he-cession claim.
Sex and the Economy: Predicting Boom and Bust
Dallas, Texas, USA, 26 June 2009 . It's sex that creates economic peaks and troughs. The number of babies born in a certain time can largely predict economic trends with surprising accuracy. In fact, in 1999, Harry S. Dent predicted that the economy would crash in about 2009.
US Online Advertising Industry: $300 Billion and Counting
Palo Alto, California, USA, 26 June 2009 UPDATE. Further Harvard/ IAB study details show that the commercial transactions value of the internet economy are around $444 million, while the time value could be as high as $680 billion, in addition to the $300 billion employment value generated.
The Wealthiest Nations
Moscow, Russia, 25 June 2009. Expats are often the wealthiest nation-within-a-nation, and they are leading indicators of where the best places to make money are. The suprising winner: Russia. Overall wealth is moving east to the Middle East and Asia, Europe & the US are feeling poorer.
The World's Top (Remaining) Banks
New York, United States 25 June, 2009 - UPDATE. The listing of the worlds top banks has just been updated for 2009 and shows JPMorgan Chase as the strongest bank in the world, RBS and Citi posting the biggest losses, and ICBC of China posting the most profits in 2008.
Is the Stock Market Rally Over?
New York, US, 24 June 2009. The Market Rally that started in March may finally be over, having got ahead of itself - and the economic realities that we still face. As markets have tumbled this week, the technicals have started to come in-line with the fundamentals.
Australian Stimulus Package: The Baroon Dollar
Maleny, Queensland, Australia, 22 June. An Australian community has introduced a new currency, in an effort to stimulate the local economy. The Blackall Range and Sunshine Coast Hinterland region of Queensland, Australia has invented the Baroon Dollar.
The Forex/ Stock Debate: Is Forex Trading or Stock Trading Better?
Singapore, 21 June 2009. The forex market has been gaining a lot more attention lately, with a steady stream of stock traders moving over and citing various reasons why it is a better market for trading. To find out more, EconomyWatch.com caught up with forex expert Jeff Hardy.
World Government Debt Will Tax Our Children's Children
Omaha, Nebraska, USA, 20 June 2009. My mother always used to tell me that when I grew up my Social Security savings would be used to pay for her and other Baby Boomers' retirements. That sounded really scary at the time.
US Financial Regulation Overhaul: Obama Walks Fine Line
Washington DC, USA, 18 June 2009. Obama recently announced dramatic changes to US financial regulations in an attempt to avert future meltdowns. But the plan is not without its critics who fear it will introduce regulation. Yet it still must include enough oversight to prevent future global crises.
Iran Election News Coverage Leaves Traditional Media Tongue-Tied
Tehran, Iran, 18 June 2009. Traditional media's business model is dying, and their reponse to the ban on foreign journalists covering the Iranian crisis is only accelerating that process. For the real news, see Twitter, YouTube and Flickr - not CNN.
The Salaryman: Dying Out with the Japanese Economy
Tokyo, Japan, 18 June 2009. The Salaryman: The stereotypical Japanese breed of corporate samurai seems to be dying out, along with Japan's economy. Enter the grass-eater: A 20-30 year-old Japanese male who lives with his mother, is uninterested in women, is de-motivated at work, sits down to pee, and is an herbivore. Yes, that's right, he eats grass, but not bush.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's Charity Economics and the Apocalypse Brigade
Tehran, Iran, 16 June 2009. The world is outraged by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's apparently rigged election victory but impartial polls show the results may well be valid. Key to understanding what has happened are Ahmadinejad's charity economics. The long term implications mean that $500 a barrel oil possible and military action leading to an Apocalypse is a desired eventuality for powerful extremists in both Iran and Israel.
European Election: How Did the Right Wing Get Elected?
London, UK, 11 June. The results of the European Union's parliamentary elections last weekend surprised many with the widespread center-right wins. Germany, Italy, France, and Poland all voted in right-leaning leaders. Meanwhile, Socialist Spanish and British administrations took a beating.
Manmohan Singh: Quiet Indian Prime Minister Plans Loud Policy Thrust
Bangalore, Indian, 10 June 2009.Manmohan Singh was once derided as a lame duck prime minster, but his bold new economic plans for India prove quite the opposite.
GM Bankrupt: Global Reactions
Bloomington, Indiana, US, 9 June . As GM goes under, pundits around the world speculate the reasons, and what it means to them today. Everybody seems to be an expert on GM's downfall, but nobody has the solution to saving this dying Behemoth.
Russian Economy on the Brink?
Vladivostock, Russia, 8 June 2009. Russia, basically, is broke. Unlike the United States, which is also broke, Russia doesn't hold a reserve currency and can't keep itself going with other people's money very long. Premium league football, tennis stars and the mafia will only take you so far as well. Either the price of oil goes up soon, or simmering social issues could explode into civil unrest.
US Housing Market: Pending Home Resales Rocket 6.7%
San Diego, California, 4 June 2009. The green shots of recovery seem to be taking hold with increasing numbers of data points showing either slowing declines or bottom-of-the-cycle increases. Since the US Housing Market dragged the whole world into recession, it needs to turn around to support a recovery, however tepid that might be.
The World's Top (Remaining) Banks
Zurich, Switzerland, 3 June, 2009. The Banking Giants of the future are taking over market share today, and the shape of the banking industry is changing, with banks from China, Spain and the Netherlands joining the Americans and French, and a new non-baking player entering the banking mix.
US Stocks Wipe Out 2009 Red Ink
New York, US, 3 June 2009. US Stocks in the DJIA have wiped out all of the 2009 losses, driven by commodity plays and the expectation of growing Chinese demand.
OECD Leading Indicators Show World Economy at Inflection Point
Paris, France, 30 May 2009. OECD Data shows that we are far from out of the words, but we are reaching a turning point, supporting the theory that the world recession will end towards the end of 2009, but that the recovery will be tentative.
Latin America: Warning - Article Contains Sarcasm
Santiago, Chile. 28 May, 2009. The UK's shadow chancellor George Osborne has been sneering at the Chilean President's economic boasts. With the west going broke while Latin America displays sound economic management, that sneering is increasingly out of place.
UK Economy: MPs Expenses Scandal
London, UK. 26 May 2009. British politics has never been a particularly clean affair, with the whiff of scandal and the sound of madams cracking whips as much a part of Westminster as the Speaker's wig. But the scandal that is ripping through the country is of a different order, and will remake UK politics.
World Stock Markets: Best Performing Markets of 2009
Lima, Peru. 25 May 2009.. Which market has grown 72 per cent this year? Most people know a lot more than they probably would like to about the massive destruction of wealth in 2008. Understanding how much wealth is currently being created is much more enjoyable.
This Could Be Worse Than The Great Depression
Washington, 21 May 2009. Are the banks leading the US into the kind of crisis we associate with third world economies and dictators? the former Chief Economist at the IMF thinks so.
Green Singapore: Plans to Become Sustainability Leader
Singapore, 20 May 2009. Having asked
‘Is Red China Going Green?' last week, in the second of green economy series we look at Singapore, which although it doesn't have resources, it will do what it knows best - plan, invest and commercialise - to become a sustainability leader.
Sensex Roars: Bombay Stock Exchange Surges 17.34 per cent
Mumbai, 19 May 2009 Yesterday we said
‘expect to see a Sensex rally', but even we were surprised by just how right we were. A two minute frenzy at the opening bell led the Sensex to roar, surging 17.34 per cent for its best daily showing ever.
India Economic Reform: After Congress Landslide Victory, Real Reform Likely
Mumbai, 18 May 2009. We were hanging our breath, so to speak, fearing a hung Lok Sabha (parliament). Instead we got that most surprising of outcomes (in India at least): a landslide in favour of a ruling party. Expect to see the Sensex rally and economic reforms to pick up pace during the next 5 years.
Mortgage Refinancing: Is it For You?
With interest rates at record lows, does it make sense for homeowners to look at home loan or mortgage refinancing? This is an updated guide to help you understand what refinance is, whether mortgage refi is for you, and how to go about finding the best refinancing package. Updated 16 May 2009.
Credit Card Industry: Obama Says You Went Too Far ... Credit Card Laws Being Tightened
Delaware, United States, 14 May 2009. There were fears that the Obama administration were in the pockets of the banks, but tough new legislation on credit card industry reform (the CARD act) and derivates suggests rather that they are picking their battles.
Renewable Energy: Is Red China Going Green?
Beijing, China, 12 May 2009. Having just become the world's largest polluter, China has embarked on a massive stimulus-assisted program to become the leading clean tech nation globally.
Australian Property Market: Sign of the Times - a 'For Sale' Sign
Sydney, Australia, 12 May 2009. There had been hopes that the Financial Crisis would not affect Australia. The brutal truth: the worst annual decline on record of 6.7 per cent, growing unemployment...but some signs that investors will return by year end?
US Economy: Major US Banks Need More Money. No Kidding.
Washington, US, 7 May 2009. The Fed and Treasury say the major US Banks need to raise another $75 billion. Their many critics say the banks got an easy ride because the worst case scenario of the stress tests is already the baseline.
India Investment: Where Have All the Jobs and Cranes Gone?
Gurgaon, India, 7 May 2009. I have a confession to make. In the last few years I have changed jobs four times. Each time I switched I increased my salary by 30-50 per cent. And then the unthinkable happened - I was dumped.
Welcome to the Future of the World Economy - a Young Chinese Female with Six Pockets
Beijing, 6 May 2009. Meet Chun Hua. Fittingly enough, her name means Spring Flower, but she prefers her nickname Pinky. She could very well determine your future wealth and happiness.
Saudi Economy: Saudi Arabia Wins Race to Host New Gulf Central Bank
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 6 May 2009. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional grouping of Arab Gulf states, has agreed to create a monetary council that will evolve into a new Gulf Central Bank, to be hosted by Saudi Arabia.
Asian Stock Market: Asian Stocks Bull Run on Positive Asia Economic News
Shanghai, 5 May 2009. Asia-Pacific ex Japan up 45 per cent since March lows, up 4.6 per cent on 4 May alone, thanks to promising economic data - but strong resistance is up ahead as markets meet the 200 Day Moving Average.
World Economy: Swine Flu Outbreak Could Derail Global Recovery
Mexico City, Geneva & Los Angeles, 5 May 2009 - UPDATE. H1N1 Flu spread to 32 countries with over 2000 fatalities, confirmed or suspected cases - but have the fears been overblown?
World Economy: The (Dangerous) Audacity of (Too Much) Hope
Chicago, 4 May 2009.The glimmers of hope and green shoots of recovery may distract us from the urgent work needed to save the world economy, and ensure that this crisis - or new one we inadvertently create - do not continue to menace global economics.
Obamanomics: The First 100 Days of Obama Economics
Washington, 30 April 2009. The changing of the guard from Bush to Obama was epochal, but soon buried under financial crisis. How have the economics - and politics - evolved in the first 100 days? Reactions from analysts and press.
UK Economy: UK Budget 2009 Points Way to World Debt Mountain
London, 29 Apr 2009. The British press were in uproar over the 'liars budget', but behind the domestic politics there is a global story of debt mountains being built. Taxpayers worldwide will be on the hook to pay it back for years to come, as analysis of the UK budget shows.
Stock Investing: Bear Market Rally Says Technical Analyst
New York, 23 Apr 2009. From the depths of depression in early March, stock traders have been jubilant since, racking up over 27 per cent gains on the DJIA. Have we passed a market bottom and are we in a new bull market, or is this a dead cat bounce?
Dubai Economy: Dubai Property Prices Fall Through (Their Marble-Hewn) Floor
Dubai, 22 Apr 2009.The Dubai property market was once the hottest in the world. English footballers rubbed shoulders with Arab Sheikhs on man-made islands and in the world's tallest towers. Not any more. UPDATE: UBS is forecasting 70 per cent price drops.
China Economy: Chinese Stimulus Package Counteracting Plunge in Export Orders
Shanghai, 20 Apr 2009.When China announced an economic stimulus package worth $585 billion in response to the global Financial Crisis in Q4 2008, it was met with some scepticism. Recent data suggests it is already having a positive impact however.
US Economy: Federal Taxes at their Lowest yet Tea Party Protests Presage State Tax Rises
Yakima, 17 Apr. In 1773, colonists in Boston, Massachussets threw British tea into the Boston Harbor, protesting taxes that were not put in place by their elected representatives. Now in 2009, protestors have held modern-day tea parties around the US, objecting to high taxes.
Rural India: Poverty and Development Key in Election
Patna, 16 Apr. Today the polls opened in the world's largest democracy. Remarkably, it is the rural and poor areas which will both shape the outcome of the election and help to revive the nation's struggling economy.
Thailand Economy: Thailand GDP and Thai Tourism Plummeting Thanks to Political Violence
Bangkok, 15 Apr. Tourism makes up 6.7% of Thailand's economy and 7% of its work force. The recent political violence and unrest is scaring off tourists, putting two million jobs at risk, and exacerbating an already-dark economic future.
India Economy: Tech Mahindra wins bid to take over Satyam Computers
Hyderabad, 14 Apr. Tech Mahindra Ltd. Placed the highest bid to acquire Satyam Computer Services Ltd. On 13 April 2009. This is just over four months after the massive accounting scandal was made public when the founder, Ramalinga Raju, confessed to inflating the books to over $1 billion above their worth.
Japan Economy: $154.55 Billion Economic Stimulus Package
Tokyo, 13 Apr. A $154.55 billion economic stimulus plan has been unveiled by Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. The plan includes measures to create jobs, revive the real estate market, and ease corporate costs, largely via new fiscal policy.
Taiwan Economy: $4.41 Billion Economic Stimulus Package Passed
Taipei, 13 Apr. A $4.41 billion economic stimulus plan was passed late last week to help Taiwan pull through the economic crisis. The plan is part of a larger $14.69 billion package that will last four years.
Germany Economy: 2009 Forecast Predicts Catastrophic Exports, GDP Contraction
Berlin, 8 Apr. The outlook for Europe's largest economy is nothing less than catastrophic. For an economy that has been historically strong, never contracting more than 1% a year since World War II, the Commerzbank forecast that it would shrink 7-9% in 2009 is not encouraging. Read more...
Africa Economy: Solid Growth, Investment, and Trade, but at a Cost
Lome, 7 Apr. Africa is quickly rising as an economic power of incredible potential. Private investment is skyrocketing. Interest rates and inflation are down. Trade is booming. The continent many see as impoverished and war-torn has benefited from its incredible commodity reserves and stable banking. But some say it's all exploitation.
North Korea Economy: Japan Increasing Sanctions
Seoul, 6 Apr. In a bold display of power, technology, and defiance, North Korea launched a rocket over the weekend. The rocket crossed over Japan, threatening stability in the region. In response, Japan has introduced new sanctions to the impoverished, isolated nation.
G20: Historic Summit Ends with Pledges Worth $5 Trillion
London, 3 Apr. What was perhaps the most important economic summit in the past 60 or more years has just concluded, with pledges of $5 trillion. Despite protests, the summit was regarded as a success. Michelle Obama made an indelible impression on Britain and indeed the world, and ties were forged between leaders of these 20 nations, the EU, and more.
US News: Federal Marshals Seizing Madoff's Assets
New York, 2 Apr. A court order to seize Bernie Madoff's millions of dollars worth of assets is underway. Federal marshals are after seizures in Florida and New York, and possibly in New Jersey and San Francisco. French authorities are pursuing assets in France..
China Economy: Swaps $10 Billion of Currency with Argentina
Beijing, 1 Apr. China has long sought ways to bypass the US dollar and allow other countries to by their imports directly in Yuan. This new $10 billion currency swap with Argentina means that Argentina will have much-needed cash.
World Economy: Public in Support of Economic Reforms
London, 31 Mar. A survey by the BBC World Service shows that more than 70% of 29,000 people around the world feel widespread reform in the international economic system is needed. The survey results were released on 31 March 2009 and represent people from 29 nations.
India Economy: Tata Nano to Expand India's Economy
New Delhi, 30 Mar. When the Volkswagen was first launched in 1938, it was supposed to be the "people's car", affordable and practical for all Germans. Now India has its own version - with the exact same tag line: "The People's Car".
US Economy: Evidence Stock Markets are at the Bottom
Omaha, 27 Mar. Have the markets reached bottom? This is something all investors want to know. Ordinary people also want to know when the economy begins its recovery too, for obvious reasons. And when they do, spending will increase and it will happen.
India Economy: Inflation Dips to 30-Year Low
New Delhi, 26 Mar. In the second week of March, Indian inflation dropped to its lowest in 30 years - 0.27%. While this sounds good on the surface, it has little room before it goes into negative territory, creating harmful deflation.
US Economy: Obama Announces Plan for Economic Recovery
Washington, 25 Mar. Today US President Barack Obama announced his plan for economic recovery. Included in this strategy includes means to create new jobs, reviving the housing market, and reestablishing liquidity in banks and getting them to resume lending.
World Economy: Global Trade will Decrease by 9% says WTO
New Delhi, 24 Mar. A recent report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) says that global trade will decline between 2% and 10% this year. Overall, global trade is expected to drop by 9%. Only two months ago, the WTO estimated a global trade drop of only 2.8%.
Indonesia Economy: GDP Drop Expected due to Decline in Exports
Jakarta, 23 Mar 2009. The global financial crisis has hit Indonesia hard, with a projected GDP growth to less than 4%, down from 2008's 6.1%. Much of this is due to a slump in exports.
World Economy: Tourism Industry, Airlines, Travel Destinations Suffer
Berlin, 20 Mar 2009. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) recently forecast weak figures for the travel and tourism economy GDP. Expectations are that it will shrink by 3.6% this year and continue to be weak into 2010. Growth that year is only forecast to be 0.3%.
World Economy: Recession Well into 2010, say Dr. Doom & IMF
New York, 19 Mar 2009. A sustained recession, frozen banks, and rising unemployment are likely to keep the US and many other countries in recession. Dr. Roubini, also known as Dr. Doom, is the NYU professor who predicted the current crisis and he says this is probably going to last into 2010.
Canada Economy: Government sets up Economic Stimulus Package
Ottawa, 18 Mar 2009. Canada is taking aggressive action to revive its troubled economy. The Minister of Finance, The Honourable Jim Flaherty, recently expressed his support for Bill C-10. This new piece of legislation will give the economy much-needed immediate economic stimulus.
World Economy: G-20 Summit in London Key to Reviving Economy
London, 17 Mar 2009. The upcoming G-20 summit in London will be key to getting the global economy back on track. All participating nations agree this has to happen, but whether or not this will be done smoothly and with unified agendas is another story.
US Economy: Bernanke Optimistic for 2009 Recovery
New York, 16 Mar 2009. Ben Bernanke thinks the recession will end this year. Or so he said on 60 Minutes, "We'll see the recession coming to the end probably this year, obviously recovery beginning next year. This decline will begin to moderate and we'll begin to see a leveling off."
China Economy: Exaggerated Economic Figures Partly Blamed for Spiraling Economy
Beijing, 13 Mar 2009. It's not uncommon for economists and analysts to accuse China of inflating economic figures or embellishing economic conditions. Some say the slumping Chinese economy is partly due to government exaggerations.
World Economy: 332 Millionaires in a Year - 29 in India
Mangalore, 12 Mar 2009. It's very easy to become a millionaire - if you start with billions. Which is exactly what happened to 332 former-billionaires. Last year, there were 1,125 billionaires, now there are only 793, according to a recent Forbes report. A total of $1.4 trillion has disappeared.
India Economy: On the Road to Recovery?
New Delhi, 11 Mar 2009. Top Indian economic adviser Suresh Tendulkar recently reported that the nation's economy could be on the path to recovery. This came with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cutting the reverse repurchase rate to 3.5% and the repurchase rate to 5%.
US Economy: Ford & UAW Make Cutbacks
Detroit, 10 Mar 2009. The US auto industry has been hit hard by the recent economic crisis, and even Ford Motor Company, the only of the Big Three to not ask for federal funds, is making defensive strategic moves.
UK Economy: BOE Cuts Interest Rates & Prints Money
London, 6 Mar 2009. The Bank of England slashed interest rates to an unprecedented low of 0.5% on 5 March, 2009. It also announced plans to increase the domestic money supply through quantitative easing - which is almost like printing money.
US Economy: Warren Buffett's Perspective on the Crisis
Eugene, OR, 3 Mar 2009. As a disappointing February cascades into an uncertain March, I invite you to take a look at Warren Buffett, one of the world's most successful investors whose career has spanned sixty years or more.
European Economy: Recession, Q4 2008 GDP Contraction and Sovereign Downgrades
Ponte San Giovanni, 26 Feb 2009. Almost all of Europe is in a recession, with Q4 contractions and soverign downgrades abound. Even France, which initially appeared to be able to emerge unscathed, is now facing a recession.
Banking Industry: Bank Nationalization - By Whatever Name - Getting More Likely
New York and London, 23 Feb 2009. It would have been unthinkable a year ago to walk into the NYSE and hear talk about bank nationalization - but that is exactly what the market increasingly believes is likely.
China Economy: The Collapse of Manufacturing and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Shanghai, 23 Feb 2009. In the summer of 2008, with trade and inflation both rampant, it cost on average $1,400 to transport a container from Asia to Europe. By January 2009, the price from China to Europe had collapsed to $0, excluding fuel and handling.
Oil Dependency: The Price of Oil and the Pace of Freedom
Pune, 19 Feb. Journalist, and three-time Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman spoke with the BBC on 18 February about what he calls, 'the price of oil and the pace of freedom'. He discusses 'The First Law of Petropolitics' - as oil prices increase the need for governments to act democratically decreases.
Japan Economy: Japan's GDP Shrinks 3.3%, Finance Minister Drunk at G7 Meeting
Tokyo, 18 Feb. It's one thing for a country's GDP to drop - which is common enough these days - but to have the finance minister drunk at the same time, when the country needs him most, is another story.
Indian Interim Budget 2009: Special Report
Indian Parliament, 16 Feb. Stand In Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee was quick to explain the limited scope of an Interim Budget, but still the Sensex dropped 3.4 per cent in disappointment.
India's Sovereign Ratings May Take A Hit After Interim Budget
Interim Budget Background, Overview and Objectives
Revised Estimates 2008-2009
Budget Estimates 2009-2010
Tax Budget
Agriculture Budget, Rural Development Budget
Education Budget
Social Sector Budget
Financial Sector Budget
Indian Economy: Indian Inflation Drops to 4.39%, Industry Shrinks 2%
New Delhi, 13 Feb. The inflation rate dropped to 4.39% the last week of January, the lowest it has been in over a year, while industrial growth has shown a rare decline, of 2%.
US Economy: Geithner Plan Draws Little Support
New York, 11 Feb. Just three weeks into his presidency, Obama has made a significant victory in the passing of the $838 billion economic stimulus package. It includes "tough love" to the debt-ridden banks, whom Obama accused of looking for an "easy" way out of their financial woes.
Iceland Economy: How they got in this Mess
Reykjavik, 6 Feb. What was once one of the world's most prosperous nations, Iceland is now struggling from the shocks of the financial collapse, and many are wondering how in the world this could have happened.
US Economy: Zombie Banks and why the US Tolerates them
New York, 28 Jan. Zombie banks are financial institutions that have negative balance sheets yet are still alive and operating. Like zombies, they are functioning when they shouldn't be.
Singapore Budget 2009: Resilience Package is a Massive Economic Stimulus Plan
Singapore, 22 Jan. S$20.5b (US$15b) might not sound like a lot of money in these days of trillion dollar collapses, but when it represents 6% of GDP (estimated at US$227b in 2007), then it becomes one of the most aggressive stimulus plans on a per capita basis in the planet.
UK Economy: RBS Losses at Record High
London, 21 Jan. Royal Bank of Scotland announced it would report losses before write-downs of £7 to £8 billion for 2008. This has caused its shares to sink 67%.
India Economy: Satyam's Demise and the Future of India's IT Industry
Hyderabad, 16 Jan. As the Satyam saga unravels, the future of the Indian IT industry becomes uncertain. Everybody these days wants a bailout and Satyam is no exception.
US Economy: Automaker and Porn Bailout
Hollywood, 9 Jan 2009. Car makers are going through a government-sponsored rescue plan. They aren't the only ones asking for help - porn moguls are trying to cash in too.
