Turkey Economic Structure
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Turkey’s economic structure has changed considerably due to the recession of 2008-2009. The inflation rate in Turkey had fallen to historically low levels, owing to lower global food and energy prices. The YOY inflation fell from 12% in October 2008 to 5.2% in May 2009, before rising marginally to 5.3% in September 2009. Experts have projected that the rate of inflation would hover around 6% in 2010.[br]
Since November 2008, the borrowing rate has been lowered 12 times, from 16.75% to 6.75% in October 2009. The private sector credit growth declined from 35% YOY in Q2 2008 to 4% in Q2 2009. The appreciation of Turkey’s currency, the Lira (TRY), against the US dollar and the euro during 2004-2007 witnessed a sharp downfall in 2008. The currency fell heavily in Q1 2009, and lost 25% of its value against the euro and US dollar till October 2009.
Turkey’s fiscal position had deteriorated during the recession. According to Euler-Hermes’ “Country Review 2009”, the fiscal stimulus from the government was expected to push the fiscal deficit to 7.5% of the GDP in 2009 and keep it at 6% in 2010. The total public debt was expected to be more than 50% of the GDP in 2009-2010. The Foreign Exchange reserves fell from a peak of $77.3 billion in September 2008 to $62.4 billion in April 2009. Since then, the reserves recovered to $70.4 billion in October 2009.
Turkey Economic Structure: The Road Ahead[br]
Turkey’s business growth has been hampered by administrative inefficiency, corruption, judiciary delays and labor market restrictions. On the other hand, the banking sector is a lot stronger in 2009-2010 than in 2000-2001. Banking reforms under the IMF and the World Bank have resulted in better regulation and supervision of the sector. The share of non-performing loans has increased from 3.6% in 2007 to 4.4% in Q1 2009, which is still acceptable, although a further rise was also projected. The sharp depreciation of 25% of the TRY against the major currencies has had a significant impact on the country’s economic structure and fiscal policies. Importing firms suffered from higher import prices and insolvency risk also increased subsequently.
