Banking

The old head and shoulders pattern in the dollar against the yen is back in vogue.  We first pointed it out the first week in January here. Recall the details.  The neckline is drawn around JPY116.30 and measuring objective is...

The US dollar is better bid today but remains largely in the ranges seen in recent days.  There a few developments to note, which together are lifting European equities after Asian equities softened.  First, the API oil inventory estimate showed...

The US dollar rose against all the major and most emerging market currencies last week. After selling off following the ECB and FOMC meetings, the dollar found better traction.  It was helped by widening interest rate differentials.  Regional Fed manufacturing...

We have been looking for a bottom in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.  It is been difficult, but now it appears that the technicals are turning.  This Great Graphic, from Bloomberg, shows that the US dollar is moving...

Helicopter money is the rage.  Central banks are talking about it.  Economists are debating it.  The media is rife with coverage.  While it sounds important, it is not precisely clear what helicopter money means.  Helicopter money is the rage.  Central...

The UK referendum is three months away.  Three-month options are a common benchmark for various market segments from speculators, to fund managers to corporations.  Events over the past week have raised the risks that the UK votes to leave the...

In our work, we have argued that the dollar is having its third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods.  The first rally was associated with Reagan though it began under Carter and followed 100 bp hike by a...

The cry that the dollar has peaked is gaining ground.  We are not convinced.  The macro-fundamental case remains intact.  Divergence between the US and other high-income countries continues, even if at a more gradual pace than the Federal Reserve expected...

The reversal of the US dollar's gains half way through Draghi's press conference has undermined the near-term technical tone.  The risk is on the downside, at least in the first part of the week, ahead of the FOMC meeting.  The...

The Canadian dollar's advance continues.  Neither the widening of interest rate differentials in the US favor nor a poor employment report has managed to buckle the Loonie. Oil and the general risk-on mood trump the other concerns. In addition, investors...

The Canadian dollar appears vulnerable.  It remains firm while the US two-year premium over Canada has risen sharply.   Like others, we do not expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates today and are looking past it.  This Great Graphic...

We argue that the dollar is in its third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971.  The Reagan dollar rally was driven by the policy mix of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy.  The G7 effort...

The US dollar fell against all of the major and most of the emerging market currencies last week.  Risk appetites have been rekindled, and the yen has gone from the best performer in recent weeks to the worst over the...

As systemic anxiety eased, the US dollar got better traction. The dollar-bloc currencies managed to hold their own as cross positions were unwound.   Major bourses posted gains for the second consecutive week.  With the recent advance, several markets, including the...

The internecine pitch battle between ECB President Draghi and the man who may very well be his successor, Bundesbank President Weidmann opened a new front this week.  It is over the future of the 500-euro note.  The internecine pitch battle...