Markets

The US employment data was disappointing. The short-term market had been leaning the wrong way. The recent data had fanned hopes that the labor market was accelerating, but today’s data suggest the pace of improvement has not changed. It is the...

Unsurprisingly, the BRICS countries sixth annual summit in Brazil once again polarised public opinion. When the proposal for a BRICS development bank and currency swap arrangement was put forward in March 2012, the reaction was already divided. Some believed —...

The US dollar is extending its gains in response to the strong US GDP figures.  There are four elements of the report to note.  First, the economy expanded by 4.0% in Q2, well above consensus expectations.  Second, Q1 was revised...

The experience that Chinese leaders gain in domestic politics has a big impact on how they view and handle international issues. Many China watchers and political analysts often overlook these domestic roots of Chinese foreign policy, particularly in China’s push...

 This is an eventful week, but the economic calendar starts slowly.  The FOMC meeting, first look at Q1 US GDP and the US jobs report, are the highlights.    The capital markets are also off to a slow start.  The...

  With its economy flat lining and being held up by oil and gas exports, Russia desperately needs to increase the scale of those exports. On the face of it the massive $400 billion deal Russia signed with China on...

There have been five important developments today, but price action has been mostly limited.  Confirmation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is pausing after hiking rates for the fourth consecutive time has sent the New Zealand dollar sharply lower....

The euro slipped through the low of the year and the weekly trend line going back to 2012. However, it found bids near $1.3460 and has recovered a bit.  The key on the upside now is $1.3500.  A move above...

Indonesia’s next president will need significant funds to fulfil election promises. But both candidates Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto have expressed caution about international borrowings. So should Indonesia undertake the risks of borrowing from overseas? There is little consensus...

The US dollar is little changed to start the week. The apparent calm masks heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza. Equity markets are trading heavy and this is helping to give the core bond markets, including US Treasuries, a...

Geopolitical events are overshadowing a light economic calendar ahead of the weekend.   The shooting down of the Malaysian plane over Ukraine and the Israel's launch of a ground assault in Gaza dominate the focus.  After a strong response that...

Since the mid-2000s, the South Asian region has witnessed an incoming wave of Chinese financial assistance. In some South Asian countries like Sri Lanka, China has overtaken traditional donors by highly engaging in post-war infrastructure development activities. So China’s engagement...

The US dollar is trading higher against the major currencies. Many observers are attributing dollar's gains yesterday and today to comments from Yellen. We are concerned that this is not a fair interpretation of Yellen, or necessarily of the market. ...

The launch of negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) (in APEC’s backyard led by the United States) and (later) the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) (under the umbrella of ASEAN) is dominating thinking about regional integration. These agreements are designed...

Recently, China's yuan has depreciated, and there is some evidence that Chinese officials got the ball rolling and may be continuing to guide the currency lower. This has been the cause of great consternation for G7 policy makers. Yet while the U.S....