India Looking Beyond the end of QE in the U.S.
India was one of the hardest hit of the emerging markets after the US Federal Reserve first hinted it would cut back its quantitative easing program in May 2013. There were three reasons for this. First, global markets over-reacted. Second,...
India’s Medium-Term Outlook Encouraging, Long-Term Prospects Look Promising
The perception about India has changed dramatically in recent months. There was widespread disenchantment with the lackadaisical leadership of the previous government that lacked a coherent economic strategy and vision to reinvigorate growth. The perception about India has changed dramatically...
The Latest in the Emerging Markets
1) Hong Kong indicated it would lift the CNY20k limit for daily currency limit for Hong Kong residents 2) Moody's upgraded the outlook on Hungary’s Ba1 rating from negative to stable 3) South African politics are heating up 4) Moody's downgraded South Africa...
Defining the Asian ‘region’ a Challenge at APEC
With considerable pomp and circumstance – and at considerable expense – it fell to China to host the annual APEC summit this year. If it lives long in the memory at all, the meeting will probably be remembered for a...
India’s Restrictive Labor Laws Challenge Investors
Investors find labour laws in India restrictive. Although progress has been made since reforms began in 1991, the labour market is still subjected to around 250 labour rules at the central and state level. India, a democracy, has found it...
G20 Summit 2014 – A Preview and History Lesson
To understand this week’s G20 Summit being held in Brisbane, Australia, and measure its success, requires a sense of the history of economic crisis and change. Recurring crises have shaped global institutions across the interwar gold standard, the Bretton Woods...
The Challenge of the Intra-ASEAN Thai-Cambodia Conflict
The Thai–Cambodia dispute over the Preah Vihear temple (called Phra Viharn in Thailand) is one of the worst intra-ASEAN conflicts on record. At least 34 people were killed during intermittent hostilities over the three years. 11 November 2014 marks the...
China’s Growth Rate Slowed, But Not Dramatically
The global economy breathed a sigh of relief last month with the release of China’s third quarter growth numbers. The result of 7.3 percent was down from 7.5 percent in the previous quarter but came in a touch above consensus...
Japanese Investment Activity Pre-BOJ Surprise QQE
The Bank of Japan surprised the markets on October 31, and probably surprised itself just as much. The BOJ meeting was initially to update macro forecasts, but it soon became clear to Governor Kuroda that inflation expectations were being slashed....
ASEAN Chairmanship is a Golden Opportunity for Myanmar
The 25th ASEAN Leaders’ Summit will be held in Naypyidaw this week back-to-back with related meetings of the East Asia Summit and other groups, bringing world leaders to Myanmar. For some of them it will be the first time in...
Under Governor Kuroda, ‘Abenomics’ is Facing More Scrutiny
The Bank of Japan sent a new shock-wave through financial markets last week when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda announced another massive round of monetary expansion (Quantitative Easing or QE). The additional boost to the Japanese money supply was accompanied by a...
Emerging Market Assets Lacking a Defined Direction
Emerging market assets, in general, are lacking a defined direction. The fall in commodity prices seems to be stabilizing, for now at least, but the impact of the large level shift is still to be felt globally. Meanwhile, the dollar...
The Dollar Pullback Amid Foreign Economic News
The US dollar is extending the pullback seen before the weekend. There does not appear to be shift in fundamental considerations. The October jobs report confirmed the trend improvement in the US labor market continues, and will still most likely...
A Thought about the Week Ahead Times Twelve
1. The Federal Reserve upgraded its assessment of the labor market in its statement at the end of last month. It noted that the "under-utilization of labor resources was gradually diminishing". There was nothing in the October jobs report that...
An ‘Abenomics’ Scorecard
The December 2012 election gave Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party control of both houses of the Diet as the electorate sought positive, decisive, energetic leadership out of the malaise of the past two decades. Shinzo Abe offered himself as that leader,...