Markets

28 November 2014

Emerging Markets Over the Last Week

1) Oil prices have taken another sharp leg down 2) The People’s Bank of China surprised the markets with rate cuts last Friday 3) Malaysia cut fuel subsidies just days after Indonesia’s new President Joko Widodo took similar measures 4) Nigeria devalued the...

28 November 2014

OPEC Meeting Fallout, Japan and Eurozone Repercussions

OPEC's decision to roll-over existing quotas sent oil prices sharply lower, pushed European bonds and stocks higher, and generally gave the U.S. dollar a boost.  Today's theme is more consolidative in nature.  At the same time, the dollar's firmer tone...

26 November 2014

Sri Lanka Becoming China’s New Best Friend?

A sea change is occurring in Sri Lanka’s strategic orientation. Recent developments suggest that Sri Lanka is becoming China’s new best friend and security partner in the eastern Indian Ocean. This would represent a major change in Sri Lanka’s foreign...

26 November 2014

History Helps Explain Japan’s Current Woes

Japan's economy and its lost decades are no more news to us. When Japan was hit by its first real estate collapse, little did it know that its revival would take forever. Many criticized the reforms that were taken and...

25 November 2014

Expanding the ECB Balance Sheet Will Take Time

EC President Juncker is set to unveil a new investment program.  It sounds good:  a fiscal complement to the monetary policy stance of the ECB.  Expectations are running high that the ECB will move to more aggressively expand its balance...

25 November 2014

The Economic Data Stream Flows On

The U.S. dollar remains within recent ranges against the euro, yen and sterling.  The antipodean currencies fell, and that is where the movement is today.  The main impetus is from a downgrade in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation...

24 November 2014

Recent Summits Expose China’s Diplomatic Subtleties

Much energy has been expended on projecting the impact of the rise of Chinese economic power on its political and military might and the strategic contest with the United States. In a conflation of geo-economic and geo-strategic analysis, two camps...

24 November 2014

FTAAP Revival is China’s Signature Trade Initiative

The 2014 APEC leaders’ summit witnessed a string of successes in Chinese trade diplomacy. Key among these successes was the endorsement of China’s signature trade initiative as APEC host: the realisation sooner rather than later of a Free Trade Area...

23 November 2014

The Dollar Appears to be Back on Everyone’s Wish List

A new phase in the markets began this month.  The Federal Reserve ended its QE3+ purchases.  The Bank of Japan unexpectedly and dramatically stepped up its asset purchases under its QQE operations.  The government's largest pension fund announced aggressive portfolio...