Will the OMT Program Turn the Eurozone into a ‘Transfer Union’?
The European Central Bank (ECB) symbolises the strange mix of politics and technocracy that marks EU governance. The bank was pushed to centre stage by the Eurozone debt crisis and the unwillingness or inability of Europe’s national governments to come...
Improving India’s Bilateral Investment Treaties
President Barack Obama’s recent visit to India will kick-start stalled negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between the US and India that has been under sporadic discussion since 2008, aimed at facilitating greater cross-border investment flows. President Barack Obama’s...
Despite Challenges, Vietnam Commits to Diplomatic Plan
Vietnam has recently upped its diplomatic efforts to strengthen relations with major powers by signing comprehensive and strategic partnership agreements. The underlying diplomatic philosophy is to create interdependent relations with as many major powers as possible, while avoiding taking sides....
What is Australia to do about China’s Slowdown?
Few countries have done so well out of China’s belated economic awakening as Australia, which has sated much of the People’s Republic’s voracious appetite for overseas iron ore and metallurgical coal. Supply struggled to keep pace with demand and the...
The Impact of the ECB’s Decisions Regarding Greek Debt Largely Confined to Greece
The main story today is not that the ECB will no longer (as of February 11) accept Greek government bonds as collateral and that Greek banks can have access to the national central bank via the Emergency Lending Assistance. That...
Can Britain Overcome Sluggish Growth in Real Wages and Productivity?
Two things stand out about the economic recovery in Britain. One is the sluggish growth in real wages. The other is the sluggish growth in productivity. That the two phenomena have coincided is no accident. Low real wages, by eroding...
Few Will Miss India’s Planning Commission
The Planning Commission is dead: long live the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI).The role and remit of India’s new planning institution has been under debate ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day address announced the demise...
Is Shanghai’s Dropping of the Provincial GDP Growth Target the Start of a Trend?
For years, Chinese officials and foreign analysts have been obsessed with China’s GDP growth figures. There has been a widespread belief that if GDP growth dips below 8 percent, there would be massive upheaval. This widely held perception turned out...
The Oil Business is Still Big Business in Indonesia
Indonesia’s ‘oil bonanza’ is now over. It ceased to be a net oil exporter and became a net importer in 2004. Indonesia currently produces only slightly above 800,000 barrels per day while the consumption level is about 1.4 million barrels...
A Preview of this Week’s Events Among the Emerging Markets
Waning risk appetite along with growing uncertainty in Europe about Greece have set up emerging markets for a difficult week. In addition, the wave of monetary policy easing and expectations for further easing by EM central banks has removed another...
Exploring the Factors Keeping the U.S. Dollar and Economy Strong
The bull case for the US dollar rests on two legs. The first is that the policy response to the crisis has produced superior economic results in the US that would lead to the Fed raising rates later this year....
Measuring the AEC Successes
Regardless of whether or not the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will be successfully concluded by its deadline of 31 December 2015, we should not be solely obsessing about its ability to deliver its ‘single market’ objective on time: the AEC...
An Emerging Markets Status Update
Over the last week, Qatar (+3.1%), Czech Republic (+1.8%), and Poland (+1.5%) have outperformed in the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, while Russia (-10.9%), Brazil (-6.4%), and UAE (-5.8%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI...
Is Europe Stuck with the EMU?
A jacket or shirt may be reversible. Time is unidirectional, we are taught and some things simply cannot be reversed, like a hard-boiled egg.However, science has once again pulled the rug out beneath our feet. Earlier this week, ABC reported...
Maintaining the Philippines Economic Momentum
The Philippines never had it so good. But with a slowing global economy and an election coming up in 2016, what can it expect from the future? The Philippines never had it so good. But with a slowing global economy...