Markets

It was a difficult week for the dollar, stocks and commodities, to say the least.  The Chinese yuan, which had been a catalyst for some recent volatility, stabilized, and actually finished the week slightly firmer.  A dovish read of the...

1) The PBOC signalled more stability in the yuan, and that is what we have, 2) The official survey by the Brazilian central bank is now showing an average forecast for 2016 GDP in negative territory for the first time,...

India’s Pakistan dilemma continues, as Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warned that they reserve the option of using nuclear weapons. The statement was made a week before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in July...

The US dollar is little changed against most of the major and emerging market currencies as North American traders return to their posts to close out the difficult week.  The US dollar is little changed against most of the major...

The massive explosion that tore through the port of Tianjin on August 12 has had a profound effect on the city. As well as the terrible loss of life and the unknown environmental effects to come, its economic impact on...

With the all the euphoria about the Chinese currency depreciation apparently behind us, we can again focus on other drivers for EM assets. In addition, these are developments in G10, commodity prices and idiosyncratic factors. We do not expect any...

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s much-anticipated statement to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the Pacific War provoked relief, surprise and some ambiguity for the future. It was a relief because there had been some reports that Abe...

When policy think tank the American Action Forum tried to put a number on the gig economy last month, it triggered considerable debate on just how much the sector is really contributing to jobs growth. Workers in the “gig economy”...

The decline in the yuan is not very large, and the way in which it happened is not very nefarious. The Chinese central bank normally intervenes heavily in the currency market and they have historically kept it closely linked to...

News that the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, changed its formula for calculating the reference rate of the yuan (RMB) prompted the currency to fall to a four-year low. News that the People’s Bank of China, the...

1) China has changed its FX regime, 2) No coalition likely for Turkey; elections in sight, 3) Moody’s downgraded Brazil one notch to Baa3, but did not assign a negative outlook, 4) Baxico sounded a bit more hawkish, at least...

After many decades of driving regional growth, the economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now slowing down, and this is likely going to have a noticeable effect on the world economy and especially globally integrated economies in...

Indonesia became a middle-income country in 2004. Indonesia’s growth rates — while superior to those of most developing countries — remain below those of East Asia’s most dynamic economies. So why hasn’t the country grown faster still and why does...

Recently, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) awarded the 2022 Winter Games to Beijing, in a joint bid with the city of Zhangjiakou, the capital’s “northern door” adjoining mountains with ski resorts. In the West, the response has been apprehensive, presumably...

Chinese officials surprised the market by instituting a mini-devaluation of the yuan.  Announcing the highest dollar fix in two years signaled the 1.9% move.  Officials indicated that this was a one-off move in response to the appreciation of the real...