All is not Lost in Emerging Markets
The end of a horrendous quarter of equities and emerging markets is generating a sigh of relief that is helping lift those battered markets. The MSCI Emerging Market is up almost 1.75% prior to the open of the Latam markets. ...
New House Leadership to be more Confrontational?
Two developments make a shutdown of the US government on October 1 less likely. First, the outgoing Speaker of the House made it clear he is determined to avoid the government shutdown, and with his resignation (as of the end...
Are China’s Market Woes Just Business as Usual?
At the end of April 2015, FXI — China’s prestigious Xinhua China 25 index, a key indicator of China’s stock market value — climbed dramatically, reaching over US$52 per share. By 5 September, the index had dropped to a low...
India Struggles to Change the Gender Narrative
The UN declared 2015 the year for global action on development. The post-2015 agenda aims to fill the gaps in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and is far more ambitious than ever before. The year could prove crucial for integrating...
Brazil Sets a Negative Tone for Emerging Markets
In a still familiar refrain, EM assets are starting the week off on a soft note. The global backdrop remains negative, with Yellen’s speech bringing Fed lift-off back into focus. US jobs data this Friday should support the notion of...
Japan’s Abe Hits the Economic Reset Button
After arguably squandering his limited political capital on pursuing a controversial agenda for an expanded role for the military and re-starting nuclear plans, Japan's Prime Minister has turned his attention back to the economy. He unveiled Abenomics 2.0. Recall that Abenomics...
Does Democracy Stand a Chance in Thailand?
Corruption has existed in Thai society for a long time. It has contributed to the failure of government projects. The Klong-Dan water treatment scandal in the late 1990s spent around 23 billion baht (US$ 638 million) of public funds needlessly....
Is America at Risk of Not Participating in a Changing China?
Thanks to misguided stories about President Xi’s reforms, America risks losing the opportunity to participate appropriately in China’s massive economic rebalancing and reform drive. In their Animal Spirits, George A Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller, two Nobel Prize winners, show how human...
Could the Ukraine Crisis Benefit China?
The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the geopolitical order in Europe and beyond is clear. Although China is not directly involved, many Western observers believe that it is the biggest winner from the crisis. The argument is that Western...
Shinzo’s ‘Abenomics’ Appears to be Losing its Sheen
Japan's markets will reopen Thursday. The day after, Japan expects to report that core inflation fell back below zero for the first time since April 2013. Abenomics has lost its shine with the economy contracting in four of the past...
New Japan SDF Legislation Breaks from History
In the wee hours of the morning yesterday, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)–Komeito coalition muscled a suite of security-related bills through the upper house of the Diet. The bills, now certain to become law, fundamentally re-draw the legal parameters...
Can the Next Indonesian Election Achieve Lofty Goals?
On 9 December, Indonesia will have its first simultaneous local executive elections to elect governors, district heads and mayors in 269 localities (out of 537) across Indonesia. While direct election of local executives has been held since 2004, this is...
Japanese Politics Hear from Students
Recent student protests in Japan against the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) proposed changes to constitutional reinterpretation have Japan watchers asking ‘is the sleepy Japanese student waking up?’ However, what if they were never asleep or they were just waiting for...
Overcoming Obstacles to Reform and ‘Clean Up’ China’s SOEs
China’s next Five-Year Plan is due for formal approval by the National People’s Congress in March 2016. One of the areas of focus is the role of China’s State-Owned Enterprises, generally viewed with suspicion by the West and seen within...
Sri Lanka’s Attempt to Strike a Balance between India and China
Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s failed bid to return to power as Sri Lanka’s prime minister is seen by many as a major blow for Beijing’s growing influence in the country and the region. The outcome of August’s parliamentary elections, which...