Markets

Editor’s note: The U.S. economy added a disappointing 38,000 jobs last month, the smallest number in more than five years, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The weak numbers suggest a June interest rate hike – which...

EM ended the week on a firm note after the US jobs shocker.  While we view the weak reading as a fluke, shifting market perceptions of Fed tightening risk should keep EM bid near-term.  However, we think the July FOMC...

In the past year, investors have seen emerging markets thrive, plunge, re-emerge and re-decline. Despite the volatile short-term story, the fundamentals of the emerging market assets remain strong. Last fall, the Wall Street Journal reported that rich nations were “losing...

In the EM equity space, China (+4.1%), Brazil (+3.0%), and Hong Kong (+1.8%) have outperformed this week, while Poland (-2.6%), Russia (-2.1%), and Qatar (-1.9%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 1.4% this week while...

It is hard to find any bad news in the latest quarterly GDP result. GDP growth of 1.1% for the March quarter (0.9% trend) puts annual growth just over 3%. The Federal Budget and subsequent Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO)...

This year’s Africa Day message from African Union Commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma affirms the organisation’s commitment to political and economic integration among member states. It cites the free movement of people, goods and services as among its flagship projects for 2016. This...

A multitude of views have coloured the understanding of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) strategy. Some view OBOR through the lens of geopolitical competition and are wary of China’s rise. Yet, the OBOR vision has intrinsic value beyond fears...

The rise of non-Western emerging powers like Brazil, Russia, India and China is a reality that has shaped South Africa’s foreign policy under President Jacob Zuma. Foreign policy under Zuma has been characterised by his country’s growing closeness with these...

A decision by judges in the Supreme Court has finally put an end to the legal challenge of two British citizens claiming to be unfairly excluded from voting in the EU referendum. They were campaigning against the law , which disenfranchises people who have...

This month marks 50 years since the official beginning of China’s Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. On 16 May 1966, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party issued an internal circular denouncing ‘revisionists’ in the Party leadership. Prepared by Chairman...

EM ended last week on a soft note.  The icing on the cake was Yellen’s speech Friday afternoon, which confirmed the more hawkish stance seen in the FOMC minutes and other recent official comments.  We warn that with the FOMC...

While watching the debate between the Treasurer Scott Morrison and Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen today at the National Press Club one would not find much in the way of new information, compared to what has been outlined during the budget and debated...

Sri Lanka’s balance of payments is in dire straits. The country’s mounting foreign and domestic public debt, a huge fiscal deficit and a severe foreign exchange shortfall have led to potentially calamitous economic circumstances. Sri Lanka has not yet secured...

For various reasons, well beyond the scope of this short note, China has amassed huge industrial capacity, well beyond its ability to absorb.  In part, that is one of the challenges that the "One Belt One Road" addresses.  Export the...

In the EM equity space, India (+5.3%), Taiwan (+4.1%), and Hong Kong (+3.6%) have outperformed this week, while Colombia (-1.5%), Qatar (-0.9%), and China (-0.5%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 2.9% this week while...