Indonesia’s Reform Bar is Set Very High
As 2015 draws to a close, the Indonesian government is trying to convince the jury on two counts — first, that it has turned the corner towards more constructive economic policy, and second, that it has the political leadership and...
The Global Backdrop for Emerging Markets Remains Negative
EM starts the FOMC week off on a soft footing. Besides the prospects of Fed liftoff Wednesday, oil prices are making new cycle lows. Uncertainty about China’s FX policy is also making markets nervous, though we think this concern is...
Living a Little Dangerously (Politically) May Help Indonesia’s Jokowi
The year in Indonesian politics began with a novice president in Joko Widodo (Jokowi) who, while struggling with day-to-day politics, still inspired hope that he would pursue the unfinished business of democratisation. After putting some early blunders behind him, Jokowi...
Australia Pro-Competition Laws Miss the Mark
How can two words create so much confusion? The government has released its options paper on Australia’s misuse of market power laws. However, all the options miss the key point. The law is section 46 of the Competition and Consumer...
Indonesia’s Jokowi Tackles Extractive Sector Reform
Investment in Indonesia’s extractive sectors has languished for years, hurt by regulatory confusion, low commodity prices and endemic corruption. With hydrocarbon and mineral industries, constituting over 40 percent of Indonesia’s exports, and energy consumption rising at home, reform is important...
South Africa, China and Brazil Make Emerging Markets’ Headlines This Week
1) South African President Jacob Zuma fired Finance Minister Nene and replaced him with little-known ANZ lawmaker David Van Rooyen; 2) S&P revised the outlook on South Africa’s BBB- rating from stable to negative; 3) People’s Bank of China announced...
Emerging Markets with Compromised Political Situations Particularly Vulnerable
The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and sterling after pushing higher yesterday. The greenback is staging stronger upticks against the yen but is struggling to resurface above previous support in the JPY122.25 area. Weak commodity...
Australia’s MYEFO Could be Ugly
With the Turnbull government’s innovation package now out of the way, we will soon get the official update on the government’s budget position, the so-called Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO). And it is unlikely to be pretty. The budget...
Trying Not to Waste a Good Crisis
It is a common refrain of political strategists that, you should not let a good crisis go to waste. Seven years on from the beginnings of the global financial crisis, we can make an assessment whether one followed that maxim....
Can Australia Innovate Itself Away from the Resource Sector?
The major big business lobby groups have largely welcomed this week’s innovation statement, getting behind its support for entrepreneurs. One wonder why they care since it primarily focuses on research institutes and startups, with which they hardly interact. “Australia’s innovation...
Congo’s Civil War and…the SEC?
A civil war has raged in the Democratic Republic of Congo for more than 15 years, resulting in the deaths of millions and displacing millions more. A civil war has raged in the Democratic Republic of Congo for more than...
Socioeconomic Barriers are Redefining Marriage in Japan
Discussions of sex in Japan typically spotlight the extremes of the social landscape: from the hypersexualised (2D girlfriends, hug cafes, erotic manga) to the sexless. Gender is skimmed with reference to ‘herbivore men’ and ‘parasite singles’. However, beyond the salacious...
China’s Yuan Tactics Seem to Take Cues from the Fed
The US dollar continues its mixed performance. The fragile stability of commodity prices today is not lending much support to the Australian and New Zealand dollars though the Canadian dollar is flat after yesterday's slide. The euro has pushed above...
China’s Migrants Show Great Economic Potential
China’s economy has entered a ‘new normal’, slower growth pattern. In addition, consumption is touted to play a more significant role in boosting economic development. The potential is large. However, if it has to be achieved, the Chinese government needs...
Emerging Markets: Same Conditions, Different Day
EM starts the week off in the familiar position of coming under pressure. The strong US jobs report has all but cemented a Fed lift-off this month, helping the dollar to claw back some of its post-ECB losses. Meanwhile, commodities...