Headed for number 11. Dominic Lipinski / PA Wire

Philip Hammond, the UK’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer, has a lot on his plate. He faces a slowing economy urgently in need of stimulus. He confronts tough choices over public spending and will be under pressure to reverse the austerity policies of his predecessor. The question for Hammond is not whether to stimulate the economy, it is when and how.

Sterling is continuing to move lower.  It has tested the $1.3050 area in the North American morning, having been under pressure through the Asian session and the European morning.  That the UK economy is slowing down, materially, as BOE Governor Carney said, is not really new news. Nor is the fact that the BOE reversed its previous decision to force banks to boost their capital buffers.  This was anticipated last week. 

The result of the U.K. referendum on European Union membership has been a surprise and massive shock to so-called “expert” opinion.

In addition, not just to academic opinion: The betting markets, which are supposed to be inhabited by experts at setting odds, were assigning just a one-in-seven probability to a majority for “leave” on the eve of the vote.

The United Kingdom has voted by a close margin to leave the European Union. Here, experts from around the world react to the news which has sent shockwaves around the world and what it means for their country. This article will update.

France

Frédérique Berrod, professor of public law, Sciences Po Strasbourg and Antoine Ullestad, PhD candidate in European law, University of Strasbourg

British people have woken up to the news that their country has voted to leave the European Union. Along with this, there has been turmoil in financial markets – the pound has hit a 30-year low and the FTSE dropped more than 8%.

Though the Brexit process will probably take two years (and the UK will remain a full member of the EU in the meantime), some aspects of the decision will affect British people straight away.

The UK's referendum is underway.  The capital markets are continuing the move that began last week with the murder of UK MP Cox.  The tragedy seemed to mark a shift in investor sentiment.  Sterling bottomed on June 17 just ahead of $1.40.  Earlier today in Asia, after more polls showed a move toward remain, sterling rallied to almost $1.4845, its highest level since last December.

British voters head to the polls this week to decide whether to “remain” in the European Union or “leave” it. The most recent surveys suggest the outcome is too close to call, with those favoring an exit holding a slight lead and many undecided.

It is not just that the polls indicate that the outcome of the UK referendum is too close to call, but the mere fact that the referendum is being held in the first place is significant.  It was not Labour, but the Conservative Party that brought the UK into the EU in the first place (and in the 1975 referendum Thatcher was campaigning for Bremain) and into the ERM.  Now the issue is tearing the party apart. 

The UK’s EU referendum is too tight to call, which will virtually ensure protracted economic uncertainty, market volatility and political risk. The worst has already happened.

The betting and events markets have shifted more decisively than the polls in favor of the UK to remain in the EU.  Sterling extended its rally from $1.4010 last Thursday to nearly $1.4785 today, as the market participants adjust positions. 

What is particular striking is that the asymmetrical perceptions of the personal impact of a vote to leave the EU.  The Great Graphic here was posted on Business Insider, which took it from Kantar, a research firm.

Campaigners for both the UK leaving and remaining in the EU have made claims regarding how a Brexit will affect the country’s finances.

There are numerous studies showing the economic costs of Brexit and the weight of academic opinion backs these estimates. However, the Vote Leave campaign does have a small group of economists who claim that the UK can be better off if it leaves the EU.

This Great Graphic shows the price people are willing to pay to bet that the UK votes to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum on the PredictIt events markets.  We included the lower chart to give some sense of volume of activity on this wager in this event market.

Presently, one would have to wager 42 cents to win a dollar if the UK votes to leave.  On May 23, one could wager 19 cents.  On Saturday, June 4, would have "bet" on Brexit for 30 cents.

A decision by judges in the Supreme Court has finally put an end to the legal challenge of two British citizens claiming to be unfairly excluded from voting in the EU referendum. They were campaigning against the law , which disenfranchises people who have lived outside the UK for 15 years or more.

It seems that not a day goes by without another Brexit economic forecast – whether it is one from the Treasury, the OECD or Economists for Brexit. Some say it will cost Britain to leave; others say it will be beneficial to the UK economy.