Economics

12 November 2015

Taking a Country to Court

The ink is dry and the full text of the major trade deal between the US and 11 Pacific Rim countries, the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP, is available to the public. And it contains plenty of lessons that can be...

12 November 2015

Indonesia’s Jokowi Comes to the US Looking for Investment

Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was in Washington DC recently for his first-ever presidential visit to the United States. What can the two countries do now to build on the momentum for cooperation gained on the trip? Indonesian President Joko...

12 November 2015

What if the Fed Rate Hike Comes Too Soon?

After 271,000 were jobs added in October, US unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent. Meanwhile, average annual hourly earnings climbed by the most since 2009. As a result, the dollar strengthened and treasuries plunged. The report was a green light...

12 November 2015

The Iberian Peninsula Grabs Headlines

The US dollar is firm within fairly narrow ranges that have prevailed this week as the market consolidates its recent gains.  Draghi's comments to the European Parliament are similarly dovish in tone to the October post-ECB press conference.  Sterling posted...

11 November 2015

Calculating the Benefits of Nonprofits

A recent article in The Atlantic highlighted a growing trend in economic aid of giving money directly to the needy, often without strings attached. The spread of smartphones is fueling this, which makes it a breeze to offer a few...

11 November 2015

Should Trade Agreements Address Climate Change?

This month’s long-awaited release of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) text was the result of years of negotiations on trade ties between nations around the Pacific Rim. Some six weeks earlier, another set of deliberations came to an end as the...

11 November 2015

The UK Rolls Out the Red Carpet for India’s Modi

Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, is in the UK from November 12 for a three-day visit. There is pressure on both India and the UK to sign a package of business deals to mark the occasion. Diplomatic business....

11 November 2015

The UK Going its Own Way with China

The lavish welcome laid on for Chinese President Xi Jinping in the United Kingdom in October 2015 provoked a surprising amount of criticism in the British and international press. Journalists talked of Prime Minister Cameron and Finance Minister Osborne’s ‘kowtow’,...

11 November 2015

The FTAAP will be a Hot Topic at APEC

Most of what APEC will achieve in 2015 has already been achieved. The Economic Leaders’ Meeting in the Philippines on 18–19 November 2015 will endorse agreed upon measures. Leaders will talk — in various groupings — about whatever else interests...

11 November 2015

There is more than One Divergence Meme in the Market

The main divergence we have emphasized is in monetary policy trajectories.  The first phase, which began late last year and will run through this month, is other countries taking action to ease policy.  The Fed stood pat.  The second phase...

11 November 2015

Still Looking, but not Finding, the Game-Changing Data

The US dollar continues to consolidate its recent strong gains. Its pullback is shallow is corrective in nature. Nothing has materialized to challenge the divergence meme. The US 2-year premium over Germany has edged higher still today. It is a...

10 November 2015

WADA Exposes the Doping, but Can Do Little to Stop It

It is hard to overplay the importance of the damning report from the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) that has presented evidence of widespread and systematic doping – particularly in Russia, which it recommends should be suspended from competition. The investigation...

10 November 2015

Following Turkey’s Lead

Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, has said to judge the G20 Summit in Antalya on Sunday 15 November based on three words: inclusiveness, implementation, and investment. Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, has said to judge the G20 Summit...

10 November 2015

Some Recent Economic Developments to Ponder

The Swiss National Bank increased its ownership of US equities by about $350 mln in Q3 to $38.95 bln.  The SNB has a stake in some 2500 listed US companies.  The Russell 2000 was marginally lower in the quarter.  The...