Economics

3 January 2016

So We Begin Again

The US dollar firmed against nearly all the major currencies in the last week of 2015.  The exceptions were the Antipodean currencies and the Japanese yen. The relatively high short-term yields offered Australia, and New Zealand may have attracted some...

31 December 2015

IMF Chief Warns That Global Growth May Disappoint in 2016

As most people look forward with hope to the potential of a new year, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, warned of a disappointing global economic outlook.  As most people look forward with hope to the potential...

31 December 2015

That’s All Folks

Many financial centers in Asia and Europe are on holiday today, and those that are open, are experiencing a minimum of activity.  Turnover may pick up briefly in the North American morning, but conditions will remain thin and only those...

30 December 2015

China Obtains Dramatic Voting Rights Boost in IMF

The US Senate recently agreed to changes to the International Monetary Fund's voting rights. This ratification redistributed voting rights to give emerging economies a bigger role in the affairs and policy decisions of the international lender. Thanks to these reforms,...

30 December 2015

There is Data, but Market Activity is Slowing on Cue

The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed in uneventful and light turnover. The euro has been confined to less than a third of a cent range. Yesterday it briefly dipped below its 20-day moving average...

29 December 2015

Monetary Policy is not the only European-U.S. Divergence

The trajectories of the monetary policy at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are diverging.  It is the keystone of our anticipation of further euro weakness in the year ahead.  In addition to this monetary divergence, a geopolitical...

29 December 2015

Corsica Nationalists Grow More Popular as Economy Falters

French politicians were taken aback when Corsican nationalists won December regional elections by a landslide, according to AFP. The Corsican public has long expressed frustration with such issues as a downtrodden economy, lack of autonomy, and North African immigration. Corsica's...

28 December 2015

And So Begins the End of 2015

Australia, New Zealand, UK markets closed for Boxing Day.  After rallying last week, oil prices are off 2%, base and precious metals lower.  European core and peripheral bond markets are highs, with yields slipping mostly 2-3 bp.  There is no...

28 December 2015

One Holiday Shortened Week Leads to Another

The US dollar traded heavily in the holiday-shortened week.  It slipped against all the major currencies.  The recovery in commodity prices, the new stimulus Chinese officials suggested, and the relatively high yields conspired to help lift the dollar-bloc currencies.  Them...

23 December 2015

No News Shortage as the Holidays Creep Closer

China's Central Economic Work Conference is responsible for setting the annual GDP target. Although it was not formally announced, President Xi previously indicated that the goal for the economy to expand by around 6.5% a year through 2020.  More telling...

22 December 2015

New Treaty Will Expand Air Travel between US and Mexico

A new treaty between the United States and Mexico promises to greatly expand air travel between the two neighbors. U.S. and Mexican authorities believe this will lead to a boost in travel, shipping, and economic exchange between the two nations....