Economics

15 January 2016

OECD Poverty Report: Israel Worst, U.S. Fourth

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released a report this week pertaining to poverty levels among member nations. According to the report, a few surprising nations ranked high on the list, with Israel at number one and the...

15 January 2016

A Fleeting Recovery may be Dashed

The recovery of US shares and oil yesterday provided short-lived.  Asian shares ended lower with the help of Chinese equities.  The 3.5% fall in the Shanghai Composite today brings the year-to-date decline to a little more than 18%. Taiwan, which...

14 January 2016

South Korea-Japan Reconciliation Setback

All eyes have been on North Korea since it made the announcement on 6 January that it possesses hydrogen bombs. The possibility of conflict with a nuclear North Korea means that it is more important than ever for Japan and...

14 January 2016

Looking to the Great White North for a Rate Cut

Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Canada will be the first major central bank to cut rates this year.  It meets on January 20.  The combination of the drop in oil prices (40% since mid-October) and the erosion of...

14 January 2016

Finding Your Market Sea Legs

Investors still have not found solid footing this year.  Equity markets have continued to sink, even though China's equities advanced.  Bond markets are mostly firmer, with the US 10-year yield seemingly being drawn back toward 2.0%.  Oil prices are little...

13 January 2016

Building a Bigger Budget Deficit

Christmas came early for Congress this year as politicians from both sides of the aisle came together to pass – by wide margins – a US$1.8 trillion package of tax cuts and new spending. At year-end, Washington seemed awash in...

13 January 2016

A Plea for Macroeconomic Cooperation

It looks already as if 2016 will be a pivotal year for the world economy. RBS has advised investors to “sell everything except for high-quality bonds” as turmoil has returned to stock markets. The Dow Jones and S&P indices have...

13 January 2016

OECD Report: China, Brazil Stabilizing Economically

For months, economists have worried about the state of the Chinese economy. As the world's second largest economy, a slowdown of the Chinese economy could drag down the economy of the entire world. Fortunately, China's economic slowdown may end later...

13 January 2016

China’s Funky Trade Balance Math

Many of the capital markets are enjoying reversals today.  Equity markets are mostly higher. The MSCI Emerging Market equity index is up more than 1%. Several key commodities, like oil and copper, are firmer.  Bond markets, outside the US, are...

12 January 2016

World Crises a Really Big S.H.O.E.

The weak growth, large output gap, low return on capital, and a host of other economic malaise are widely recognized.  There seem to be two main schools.  One is associated with Reinhart and Rogoff.    They argue that "this time is...

11 January 2016

Sentiment Remains Fragile

Chinese shares continued last week's plunge, with the Shanghai Composite off 5.3% and the Shenzhen Composite falling 6.6%.  Both indices closed on their lows.  With the apparent help of officials, the onshore yuan strengthened, though the real squeeze was in...

10 January 2016

Last Week’s Market Mess Carryover

A tumultuous start of the year saw the US dollar turn in a mixed performance.  Emerging market currencies and the dollar-bloc softened.  Sterling was in this camp, losing about 1.2% against the dollar.  On the other hand, the euro, Swiss...