China’s International Relationships and How They are Playing in Asia
One day in June 2013, President Xi Jinping and his wife and First Lady Peng Liyuan touched down in Trinidad and Tobago. As the pair embarked the aircraft and strode down the gangway, there was something unmistakably ostentatious — a...
Currency Depreciation as Monetary Policy
Megan Trainor tells us it is "All About the Base". It seems like many reporters and analysts may be mistaking her lyrics as it is all about debase, as in currency wars. The latest surge of currency war stories follow the...
Central Bank Meeting Week Continues
After yielding ground yesterday, the US dollar comes back bid today. The main driver is the divergence that favors the US. Specifically, yesterday two people we have identified as part of the troika at the Federal Reserve, from where policy...
OPEC Forced to Change its Tactics
OPEC is a cartel but it is a strange species in the sense that it only accounts for about 40% of oil production. In the past exerted its influence by cutting production, as in 2008, and driving up prices. Now...
Three Investment Themes Perpetuate and are Strengthening
Throughout the last few months, we have identified three forces that are shaping the investment climate: the economic and monetary divergence that favors the US, the decline in commodity prices, and a slowing of China. These forces remain intact. If...
Obama, the TPP, and Help from – Republicans?
Are the stars aligning for both passage of a trade promotion authority bill by Congress and approval of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement? Are the stars aligning for both passage of a trade promotion authority bill by Congress and approval of...
OPEC’s Meeting Results and Eurozone Inflation Numbers
Two developments are important for investors to know about before the markets open on Friday to close the month. First, and most importantly, the results of the OPEC meeting are the most negative outcome for prices. OPEC, which over-produced in...
Personal Incomes, Jobless Claims Disappoint
Personal incomes rose less than expected and jobless claims surprised analysts with a surge on Wednesday, as growing optimism met with sobering data.Weekly unemployment claims rose to 313,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up over 7% from the prior week....
U.S. Holiday Means Economic News Today, Then Focus Shifts Overseas
The capital markets are mostly quiet, amid a light news stream, and ahead of three key events in the coming days, with U.S. markets closed tomorrow and light participation expected on Friday. These events are tomorrow's OPEC meeting, the flash...
China Aims High
This geopolitical summit season has consolidated ongoing trends in international affairs. A still-rising China with global leadership aspirations, a resurgent Russia bent on restoring its superpower status, and sclerosis and dysfunction in Western countries is likely to dominate international politics...
Japan’s Election – Policy or Politics?
Prime Minister Abe is subjecting his ruling coalition — and his nation — to an unnecessary election on 14 December 2014. Abe claims his decision is all about policy, but in reality it is all about politics. His stated rationale...
Holiday-Shortened Week in U.S. not Short on News
The US dollar has begun the holiday-shortened week on a firm note, but the stronger than expected German IFO report helped steady the euro near $1.2400. Although the Japanese markets closed earlier today, the dollar rebounded toward JPY118.40, as participants...
Central Banks Start Printing Presses Worldwide
As disinflation and deflation threatens growth rates in emerging markets and the European Union, central banks have hinted that their monetary policy will become more accommodative in the coming months.From China to the European Central Bank, policymakers are cutting growth...
One Cannot Separate Politics and Economics
Many people assume that politics and economics are separate spheres. We find ourselves often harkening back to the even older tradition of referring to "political economy". Harold Laswell, regarded as the father of modern political science, famously defined politics as...
Global Summits, Global Hopes
For global governance watchers, this was the big week of the year. Between 7 November and 16 November, the world witnessed an APEC meeting in Yanqi Lake near Beijing complete with a bilateral China–Japan ‘breakthrough’ and a major US–China climate...