Economic Conditions

The combination of stronger US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve that it is looking to continue the normalization process helped the dollar extended its recovery.  The dollar posted a significant technical reversal against many of the major...

The US dollar is rising against all the major currencies today.  The Australian dollar is retracing a sufficient part of its recent gains to suggest that the current phase of the US dollar's recovery is not over. Given that the...

The most notable thing is not what has happened, but what has not happened.  The market has not responded to the soft Chinese data over the weekend.  Chinese equities began softer but recovered fully and the Shanghai Composite closed on...

The key issue facing the foreign exchange market is whether the modicum of strength the US dollar demonstrated last week is the beginning of a sustainable move.  It is possible that the market is again at a juncture in which...

The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week. The importance of the price action does not lie with the magnitude or the breadth of the advance. Instead, the two takeaway technical observations are 1) the seemingly one-way...

The US dollar is firm, near the best levels of the week against the euro, yen, and sterling. However, against the dollar-bloc and several actively traded emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, the greenback has...

Has the dollar turned now that Cruz dropped out of the Republican primary and Trump has secured the nomination?  The greenback has extended yesterday's reversal higher. The euro had briefly poked through $1.16 and closed on its lows a little...

The US dollar's downtrend is extending.  The euro traded above $1.16 for the first time since last August. With Japanese markets closed for the second half of the Golden Week holidays, perhaps participants felt less hampered by the risk of...

The die is cast.  The Federal Reserve is on an extended pause after the rate hike last December. The market remains convinced that the risk of a June hike is negligible (~ less than 12% chance).  The ECB has yet...

April was a cruel month for the US dollar.  It fell against all the major currencies; even those whose central banks have negative yields.  The greenback also fell against nearly all the emerging market currencies, but the Philippine peso and...

The White Queen in Alice in Wonderland (Through the Looking Glass) confesses that when she was younger, she could believe six impossible things before breakfast.  She encourages Alice to do the same.  It appears many in the market are taking the...

Two main forces in the foreign exchange market are rippling through the capital markets.  The first is the continued weaker dollar tone.  The combination of what appears to be a stagnating US economy (0.5% annualized pace in Q1) and a...

One can appreciate the frustration in Tokyo. The Bank of Japan surprised the world by adopting negative rates in January and the yen rallied. Today it disappointed many by not easing, and the yen rallied. The BOJ next meetings in...

The foreign exchange market is largely quiet as the market awaits fresh trading incentives and the FOMC statement later in the North American session.  The main exception to the consolidative tone is the Australian dollar, which is posting its largest...

The US dollar starts what promises to be an eventful week giving back some the gains score in second half of last week against the euro and yen.  Equity markets are extending their pre-weekend losses.  Commodities are also trading with a...