Economic Conditions

28 June 2016

Today’s Market Reversals are not that Surprising

The global capital markets are stabilizing for the first time since the UK referendum.  It is not uncommon for markets to move in the direction of underlying trends on Friday's; see follow-through gains on Monday, and a reversal on Tuesday. ...

27 June 2016

Keeping Asian Growth out of the Doldrums

The global economic outlook may be grim but it would be grimmer still but for Asian economic growth. There’s no dynamic growth pole anywhere else in the world and global uncertainties have increased around the rise of Donald Trump in...

26 June 2016

Moving On Because the Markets Insist

The UK choice to leave the EU on a 52%-48% vote is one of those moments that define before and after. It is true that there are examples of the EU not liking the outcome of a referendum and allowed...

24 June 2016

Is the UK the First Domino?

The British decision to leave the EU has been a long time in the making, but it does not lessen the shock that many politicians in the UK and across the EU are feeling. While London begins the long process of...

24 June 2016

Brexit Forces Scramble for Safety

The UK's decision to leave the EU spurred a dramatic risk-off move through the capital markets.  The dollar, yen, and gold soared.  Equities and emerging market assets sold off hard. Core bond yields fell sharply.  The UK's decision to leave...

22 June 2016

The Calm Before the Storm

There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today. The focus is squarely on tomorrow's UK referendum.  According to a BBC focus group, the leave camp won the debate 39%-34%. The last polls show a contest that it too...

21 June 2016

The Eurozone Focus on Germany, the U.S. on Yellen

The US dollar remains heavy against most of the major and emerging market currencies today as the pullback that began at the end of last week continues.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars are leading the way, with 0.5%-0.6% gains.  ...

17 June 2016

U.S. Fed and RBA Traveling a Similar Path

A familiar theme of this column has been the significant uncertainty about the global economy that is leaving investors - and to some extent, consumers - standing on the sidelines. That in turn means lower growth, which validates the decision...

16 June 2016

Long-Lasting Headwinds

The US dollar is higher against the major currencies but the Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar.  The dollar fell to new two-year lows against the yen to JPY103.55 before bouncing in the European morning back to JPY104.40. The...

10 June 2016

Down, then Up, the Dollar is Ready for the Weekend

The US dollar weakened in the first half of the week as participants continued to react to the shockingly poor jobs report and shift in Fed expectations.  However, it recovered smartly yesterday and is seeing some modest follow through buying...