April 2005 Indian Economy Statistics

VARIABLES	LATEST FIGURES AVAILABLE
INFLATION RATE (WPI)	5.64 % (April 16)
INFLATION RATE (CPI)	4% for March 2005 (over a year)
GROWTH RATE OF M3	3.3 % (over a year)
PRMIE LENDING RATE	10.25 -10.75%
Re/$ EXCHANGE RATE	43.65 (April 29)
FOREX RESERVES	142.54 billion (April 22)
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (IIP)	7.2% (over a year)
GROWTH RATE OF EXPORTS	24.4 % over a year
GROWTH RATE OF IMPORTS	35.6 % over a year

INFLATION
The wholesale price index rose 5.64 percent in the 12 months to April 16, higher than the previous week’s 5.48 percent and also above market expectations, mainly due to higher food, manufactured product and energy prices, the CSO under the ministry of statistics and planning implementation said. The inflation rate was at 4.68 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

The index for primary articles that carry 22 % weight rose by 0.1 percent and 0.5% increase was seen in the group ‘manufactured products’, which carries the maximum weight of 63.75 %.

The index for fuel power, light and lubricant rose by 0.1 percent to 292.7 (Provisional) from 292.5 (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of furnace oil (2%). However no increase in the price of petrol and diesel is causing huge losses to the Indian oil companies.

CPI (UNME) that is published monthly, for March 2005 was 441, which was one point more than the index for the previous month i.e. February 2005. At the group level, the index for March 2005 when compared to last month i.e. February 2005, has increased by 0.24 percent in respect of “Food, Beverages & Tobacco” and “Clothing, Bedding & Footwear etc” group. With the corresponding all-India index for March 2004 being 424, the index for the month of March 2005 has shown a rise of 4.0% over the year.

MONEY SUPPLY
Stock of money was 23,43,523 Crore on April 29, 2005. So far in the financial year 2004-05, this variation is of the order of 3.3 %. In terms of amount, the total outstanding money stock is higher by Rs 74366 crore than that in the same period a year ago. The components in money supply namely, currency with public, time deposits with banks grew by 4%. Compared to the last year growth rates in each of these components, all witnessed lower growths. In fact, Demand deposits with banks and “other” deposits with banks witnessed negative growths of -0.7 and -30.6 % resp. Maximum variation was seen in the other deposits with RBI, which was 29.8 % in same period last year. Among the sources of variation in money supply all the components viz, net bank credit to govt, net foreign exchange assets of banking sector and bank credit to commercial sector went down. Compared to growth rate in 2004-05, banking sector net non-monetary liabilities fell down.

INTEREST RATES
Prime lending rate of major 5 banks remained static at 10.25%-10.75% in the month of April also. Bank rate is also the same as of last month’s figure of 6%.

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
According to the official release Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 1993-94 for the month of March 2005, by the CSO, the General Index stands at 225.8. This index is higher by 7.2% as compared to the level in the month of March 2004.

The Indices of Industrial Production for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of March 2005 stand at 176.4, 236.2, and 195.9 respectively, with the corresponding growths of 5.6%, 7.8% and 3.0% as compared to March 2004. The cumulative growth during April-March, 2004-05 over the corresponding period of 2003-04 in the three sectors have been 4.3%, 8.8% and 5.2% respectively, with the overall growth in the General Index being 8.0%

As many as 14 of the 17 two-digit industry groups have shown positive growth during the month of March 2005 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. ‘Textile Products (including Wearing Apparel)’ have shown the highest growth of 29.4%, followed by 22.0% in ‘Leather and Leather & Fur Products’ and 18.1% in ‘Beverages, Tobacco and Related products’. On the other hand, ‘Wood and Wood Products; Furniture and Fixtures’ have shown a negative growth of 11.6% followed by a decline of 4.9% in ‘Food Products’ and 0.9% in ‘Metal Products and Parts, except Machinery and Equipment’.

As per Use-based classification, the growth in March 2005 over March 2004 is 6.9% in Basic goods, 14.2% in Capital goods and 4.1% in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 8.2% and 7.2% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 7.5%.

EXCHANGE RATE
Re weakened against US dollar in the month of April 2005 also. Re/$ exchange rate stood at Rs 43.65 per US $ on the last day of April 2005, lowest among its value in all the other days of April. During the month, the exchange rate revolved around 43.75. Re depreciated to a level of 43.83 on April 15 and began to appreciate towards the end of the month. Rupee value strengthened against other major currencies in the first half of the month and then saw a reversal in the latter half of April. The exchange rate against EURO, GBP and Japanese Yen was at 56.60, 83.56 and 41.47 respectively on April 29, 2005.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
The Reserve Bank of India statistical supplement showed a robust increase in India’s foreign exchange reserves during the month of April. The reserves went up by $1 billion to $142.54 billion for the week ended April 22, 2005; however fell slightly by $ 648 million in the consecutive week

Maximum raise was witnessed in the third week of April with Foreign currency assets going up by $985 million to reach $136.60 billion. Gold reserves and SDRs (special drawing rights) remained static at $4.5 billion and $5 million respectively.

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports in dollar terms in 2004-05 increased by 24.4 percent as compared to an increase of 21.3 percent in 2003-04. Imports increased by 35.6 percent in 2004-05. POL imports growth was 41.2% and non POL imports grew by 33.6%.

India’s share in the world merchandise exports has increased to 0.82% at the end of 2004 as compared to 0.66% in 2000, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) statistics. This growth was achieved despite depreciation of the dollar against the rupee and sluggish demand in some key markets. The government of India has set a target of 1.5% share in global exports by 2010 and estimates indicate that India’s exports should growth to around $150 billion to achieve this goal.

SENSEX
The markets surrendered to heavy selling pressure on April 28, as a number of leading companies in various sectors posted disappointing numbers. The BSE Sensex lost 130 points to close at 6154, while the Nifty lost 39 points to end the day at 1903. Earlier during the month, Sensex had reached higher levels with BSE crossing 6550 and NIFTY closing at 2053 on April 5. The BSE sensex kept hovering around 6250, touching a low of 6134.86 points on April 19.