Guatemala Economic Forecast

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Of all countries in Central America, Guatemala is the most populous. Currently, the country’s Gross Domestic Product or GDP per capita is about 50% of that for Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. The primary sectors in Guatemala include agriculture, agrarian, fisheries, and farming, followed by exportation. Of the crops grown, sugar, coffee, and bananas are grown but with high demand around the world for ethanol, sugar exports have skyrocketed.


Of all countries in Central America, Guatemala is the most populous. Currently, the country’s Gross Domestic Product or GDP per capita is about 50% of that for Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. The primary sectors in Guatemala include agriculture, agrarian, fisheries, and farming, followed by exportation. Of the crops grown, sugar, coffee, and bananas are grown but with high demand around the world for ethanol, sugar exports have skyrocketed. Unfortunately, Guatemala experienced 36 years of civil war but when a peace agreement was signed in 1996, the country was no longer stifled from Foreign Direct Investment. Since that time, the country’s government has worked toward several essential reform and economic stabilization programs and then in 2006 when the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) was executed, investment in export-oriented sectors increased. While the economy slowed in 2009 due to less demand from other Central American countries and the United States for export and Foreign Direct Investment, the economy remains relative stable.

Guatemala GDP Forecast

In 2009, the Guatemala GDP turned negative, primarily because of lowered export demand. Although this country has agricultural resources that are rich and a varied climate that makes it possible for a wide selection of crops to be grown, with inadequate financial support and distribution, challenges exist. Many workers in the farming sector continue growing conventional crops while others are finding money can be made with other crops to include flowers, fruits, and ornamental plants. To understand the future for the Guatemala GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollar), experts look at historical data and use specific formulas. For instance, the GDP at the end of 2008 was $39.13 billion in US dollars. At that time, forecasters stated a 4.66% decline would occur, taking the 2009 number to $37.302 billion, which is what transpired. With these numbers, the country was at the number 78 spot for world rankings. Then in determining the GDP for 2010, forecasters believe an increase of 6.59% is on the horizon, which would close out the year at $39.76 billion. As far as numbers for the GDP in 2015, current predictions are $50.415 billion in US dollars.

Guatemala Unemployment Forecast

The latest report for the Guatemala population is that just slightly more than 14 million people live in this country, which puts the country at number 64 worldwide. When looking out to 2015, forecasters do see some growth to around 16 million. In addition, the most current numbers for the Guatemala unemployment rate is around 3.2%. In looking at this rate from 2003, we can see the 7.50% has improved.

Guatemala Inflation Rate Forecast

Then, determining the Guatemala inflation rate, averages for the year being worked are used instead of data for end-of-period, using an index of 2000=100. At the close of 2008, the country’s inflation rate was at 11.36% but then with a decline of 83.63%, the close of 2009 was at 1.859%. For world rankings, these numbers listed Guatemala as number 119. For 2010 predictions, it is believed an increase close to that same amount will occur, taking the year-end numbers to 3.26%. Looking out even further, forecasters state that 2015 will close around 4.00%.

Guatemala Current Account Balance Forecast

This country’s economy also involves the Guatemala current account balance, which is based on all transactions expect for items in the capital and financial categories. The primary classifications used for this forecast includes goods, services, current transfers, and income. Numbers for 2008 were at a negative $1.77 billion in US dollars, which experienced a reduction of 87.37% pushing 2009 to a negative $0.224 billion. With the year-end numbers for 2009, Guatemala was ranked at number 87 worldwide. Using the same formula, predictions for 2010 show a serious increase of 493.75%, which would put the numbers at a negative 1.33 billion and by 2015, another major increase is expected, changing the current account balance to a negative $2.211 billion in United States dollars

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