US Job Scene Disastrous, Even Doctored BLS Stats Show
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The train that is the nation’s so-called / self-styled / alleged economic recovery has slowed noticeably,
unable to generate enough jobs in the last two months to keep pace with population growth,
much less reduce the vast numbers of unemployed Americans.
The United States added just 83,000 private sector jobs in June,
according to the monthly statistical snapshot released by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS.
The train that is the nation’s so-called / self-styled / alleged economic recovery has slowed noticeably,
unable to generate enough jobs in the last two months to keep pace with population growth,
much less reduce the vast numbers of unemployed Americans.
The United States added just 83,000 private sector jobs in June,
according to the monthly statistical snapshot released by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS.
The unemployment rate declined to 9.5 percent, from 9.7 percent in May.
But that was a largely illusory decline, as 652,000 Americans left the work force.
Over all, the nation lost 125,000 jobs in June, but those losses came as temporary federal Census workers headed for the exits.
With the economy slowing — housing sales plummeted, while earnings and hours worked ticked downward last month —
the stakes grow larger, economically and politically.
The next few monthly unemployment reports will unfold during the run-up to the midterm Congressional elections this fall.
Incumbents feel particularly precarious, and major economic decisions about financial reform, unemployment benefits, and aid to states still sit on their desks.
“We may have seen the best of employment for some time,” said Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust.
“In general the economy is downshifting, maybe to stall speed, or just above stall.”
The US economy needs to add about 130,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with new workers entering the market.
The labor pool is packed with 15 million Americans looking for work,
and state and local governments cut another 10,000 jobs in June – cuts likely to accelerate this summer.
The weeks leading up to the report offered a grim rat-a-tat-tat of statistics pointing to a slowing economy.
Auto sales fell, housing sales plunged and unemployment claims rose to a peak higher than is normal for a so-called / alleged / self-styled economic “recovery.”
And the labor data offered many more signs of slippage.
The labor-force participation rate — that is, the number of workers counted as participating in the national economy — fell by 0.3 percentage point.
And the picture remained unyieldingly grim for the long-term unemployed.
The median duration of unemployment rose to 25.5 weeks in June, from 23.2 in May.
More and more Americans are being left behind.
In June, about 2.6 million people were marginally attached to the labor force, a rise of 415,000 from a year earlier.
This means they are not counted in the unemployment numbers, but they have looked during the last year and want a job.
The overall unemployment rate, incorporating all such Americans, stood at 16.5 percent.
“This economic recovery does not have enough momentum to sustain on its own without government help,”
said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University, Channel Islands, and a former chief economist at Wells Fargo.
“Businesses are reluctant to hire for fear of a double-dip recession. Without jobs, the economy can’t grow, limiting job growth and spending.”
The national economy looks like a slack muscle, according to this article from the New York Times.
Prices and wages are dormant or falling, banks are holding tight to credit, consumers appear fatigued and the stock market is tumbling.
And 3.2 million workers are losing their unemployment benefits because Congress turned down President Obama and declined to authorize an extension.
Paul Krugman, the economist and New York Times columnist, warned recently of the risk of another Great Depression.
Many economists disagree with that view, saying the sluggishness will end this fall or winter.
Others, however, join Mr. Krugman in warning that stagnation could loose another wolf: deflation.
“In the winter of 2009, I said the risks are for inflation, not deflation,” Mr. Kasriel noted.
“In the summer of 2010, I think the risks are now tilted toward deflation. We run the risk of entering a really bad environment.”
