Somalia Economic Forecast


Somalia has faced civil unrest but in spite of this, it has maintained a somewhat stable economy. Because of telecommunications, livestock, and remittance of money and money transfer companies, the economy has not suffered as much as it could have otherwise. However, experts are having a tough time determining economic growth because of formal government statistics, as well as the most recent civil war.


Somalia has faced civil unrest but in spite of this, it has maintained a somewhat stable economy. Because of telecommunications, livestock, and remittance of money and money transfer companies, the economy has not suffered as much as it could have otherwise. However, experts are having a tough time determining economic growth because of formal government statistics, as well as the most recent civil war.

According to many experts, Somalia’s most recent increase in economic activity is because of customary law. With this, the environment has the ability to be stable, allowing companies to conduct business as normal. Exportation from Somalia is estimated around $300 million, specific to livestock, hides, bananas, fish, scrap metal, and fish. The primary export partners associated with Somalia include the UAE, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. For imports, recent numbers are reported at $798 million.

Somalia GDP Forecast

The Somalia GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollars), numbers back in 1994 were at $4.1 billion in US dollars. However, numbers being reported for year-end 2009 had increased to $5.731 billion. Experts forecast that by 2010, the GDP will increase by 2.6%. Most believe significant growth in the private sector has been responsible for this increase. Another report for the Somalia GDP is for Purchasing Power Parity, which reported at $5.589 billion in US dollars for 2008, followed by $5.731 billion in 2009. Then for the GDP per capita (PPP), 2009 closed at $600 billion with 2009 closing the same. For the GDO official exchange rate, the 2009 number was reported at $2.763 billion in US currency whereas for real growth, 2009 ended at 2.6%.

Somalia Unemployment Forecast

The Somalia population is estimated at 9.13 million, with people spread out over 246,201 square miles, ranking the country worldwide at number 198. Of the population, approximately 3.5 million work, mostly in agriculture, followed by industry and services sectors. In truth, several possibilities exist for work. Considering the livestock sector, this is responsible for about 40% of the country’s GDP but even with potential, the country is poor. Unfortunately, the Somalia unemployment rate continues to be high and two significant problems now cause problems the government. First, unemployment is around 66% and second, the labor forces only makes on average $500 a year. Because of this, another problem has surfaced – piracy, a serious problem that in 2008 alone resulted in pirates receiving more than $150 million in US dollars in ransom money. Obviously, the government is working hard to find solutions since this not only affects the people of Somalia, but other countries as well.

Somalia Inflation Rate Forecast

Another vital part of the economy is the Somalia inflation rate. The challenge is that determining accurate numbers is difficult for experts since many businesses actually print their own money. Even so, the inflation rate for consumer prices was at 100% in 2000. Without authority by the central government, the Somalia economy has experienced some devastation, specifically in currency. With the fake money racket booming, the government is having a difficult time getting the problem under control.

Somalia Current Account Balance Forecast

Being able to determine accurate numbers for the Somalia current account balance has also been a major challenge. Since the time Somalia became an independent country, maintaining consistent balance payments has been a real problem. The reason for this has been deficits of imports and exports, as well as hidden transactions. By 1995, financial aid to Somalia had reached $192 million in US dollars and by 2000, $2.6 billion. Although Somalia is an extremely poor country, one with few natural resources, many people have been able to find work. In fact, compared to other African countries regarding infrastructure and economic potential, Somalia is actually in a much better position. Experts believe if the government was to capitalize on the potential the economic position could turn around.

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