Oman Economic Forecast

Oman’s key strategic challenge is that its oil reserves are dwindling, and it therefore must diversify its economy.

By 2020, it is aiming to have only 9% of GDP driven by oil.

Oman’s key strategic challenge is that its oil reserves are dwindling, and it therefore must diversify its economy.

By 2020, it is aiming to have only 9% of GDP driven by oil.

It is running a set of modernization, privatization and ‘Omanization’ initiatives to help it achieve its aim. The current increase in oil prices and better oil extraction technologies are helping it to continue growth in the current period, but ultimately in order to achieve its economic forecasts it will need to successfully pursue its current initiatives, and in particular develop it two key new sectors, tourism and gas production.

The Omanisation program has been in effect since 1988. It seeks to upgrade Omani’s skills so that they can progressively replace the foreign workers in the country. By 1999, most government ministries employed more than the target 72% Omanies, with 86% being the overall average. This number is increasing as more locals go through training programs and get work experience, and more expatriates leave the country. 

Oman GDP Forecast

Oman’s GDP (PPP) in 2010 was US$78.1 billion. That makes it the 76th largest economy in the world.

GDP is forecasted to reach $82.821 billion in 2011, and to continue growing to $103.872 billion by 2015.

Oman’s GDP grew at a 4.722% rate in 2010, the 64th fastest growing market in the world.

In 2008, it was the 3rd fastest growing country globally at a 12.842% clip, thanks to its modernization program.

Growth is not expected to reach those heights again any time soon. Instead it is expected to go through a managed process according to its current five-year plan, with consistent growth in the 4% – 4.8% range.

Oil and gas price increases could improve this figure, while an escalation of tensions as a knock on effect of the Arab uprisings holds some downside risk.

Oman society is relatively well off, with a GDP Per Capita figure of US$26,197.69 for 2010, making Omanis the 35th richest people in the world.

GDP Per Capita is forecasted to rise to US$26,861.46 in 2011 and US$29,749.75 by 2015.

Oman Unemployment Forecast

Oman has a population of 2.981 million, which is rising at around 3.4% a year.

Its labor force is just shy of 1 million.

There are no up-to-date unemployment figures available for Oman. Unemployment was estimated at 15% in 2004, but it has been dropping as the Omanization program continues to roll out, and is forecasted to drop below 10% within the next five years.

Oman Inflation Rate Forecast

 The average Inflation Rate for Oman is 2010 was 4.35%, and is forecasted to drop to 3.497% in 2011 and 2.823% in 2015.

Oman Current Account Balance Forecast

Thanks to oil exports, Oman maintains a current account surplus.

In 2010 its current account was US$3.126 billion, and this is forecasted to rise to US$3.592 billion in 2011.

However, as oil reserves deplete and less oil is exported, this figure is expected to drop and reverse, becoming a -US$1.073 deficit by 2015.

You can find a full range of Oman Economic Statistics and Indicators in the EconomyWatch.com Economic Statistics Database.