Ford Stock Crashes to 52-Week Lows After Dismal 2025 Outlook

Ford stock (NYSE: F) is trading sharply lower today and fell to its 52-week lows after the company released its Q4 earnings. While its earnings were better than expected, the company’s guidance was well short of estimates which led to the sell-off.

Ford reported revenues of $48.2 billion in Q4 which was $2.2 billion higher than the corresponding quarter last year. The company’s automotive revenues rose to $44.9 billion which was ahead of the $43.02 billion that analysts were expecting. In the full year, the company generated revenues of $185 billion which was a record for the Detroit auto giant.

The company’s adjusted EPS came in at 39 cents, ahead of the 33 cents that analysts were expecting. Ford reported an adjusted EBIT of $10.2 billion in 2024 while its net income stood at $5.9 billion. The company generated adjusted free cash flows of $6.7 billion.

Ford Provided Tepid Guidance

For 2025, Ford forecast adjusted EBIT between $7 billion to $8.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion. Both these metrics signal significant deterioration from the last year. The guidance “presumes headwinds related to market factors” and a 2% fall in vehicle prices.

Notably, while Ford’s guidance spooked markets, rival General Motors provided an upbeat outlook during its Q4 earnings call. GM expects to post adjusted pre-tax earnings between $13.7 billion-$15.7 billion in 2025 as compared to $14.9 billion last year. Notably, GM raised its 2024 guidance in the previous three earnings calls even as several other global automakers cut their forecasts amid a tough macro environment – particularly in China.

While General Motors’ EV posted a variable profit in Q4 and the company expects the segment’s losses to narrow by between $2 billion-$4 billion this year, Ford expects its EV pre-tax losses to be between $5 billion-$5.5 billion this year which is not much different from the $5.08 loss last year.

Ford Announced a Supplemental Dividend

Meanwhile, during the earnings call, Ford announced a supplemental dividend of 15 cents on top of the regular quarterly dividend of 15 cents. This would mark the third consecutive year when Ford topped up its regular dividend with a special dividend.

On the contrary, GM has been using its free cash flows to repurchase shares and managed to bring down its outstanding share count to below 1 billion in Q4, ahead of the timeline.

Trump Announced Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Last week, President Donald Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico which were then put on hold. The automotive industry in North America is quite integrated and the tariffs are disruptive for US auto majors. Notably, Canada, Mexico, and the US were covered under the NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) which Trump renegotiated in his first tenure. In July 2020, the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) replaced the NAFTA which had come into effect in 1994. The USMCA is also scheduled for a review in July 2026.

For years, the US automotive industry benefited from lower production costs in Mexico and global auto giants set up plants in that country. The tariffs are however set to negatively impact companies like Ford, GM, and Volkswagen as they all have manufacturing footprint in Mexico and Canada.

In its report prior to the tariff announcement, S&P Global noted, “There are approximately 5.3m light vehicles built in Canada and Mexico, with about 70% of these destined for the US. Further, many US-built vehicles use Canadian or Mexican-sourced propulsion systems and component sets; those components would see a tariff as well, increasing costs for vehicles produced in the US.”

The report adds that 22% of vehicles sold in the US last year were imported from either Canada or Mexico. Specifically, GM sourced 22% of its vehicles from Mexico last year while the corresponding number was 15% for Ford.

Ford on Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs did pop up during Ford’s Q4 earnings call. According to Farley, “There’s no question that tariffs at 25% level from Canada, Mexico, if they’re protracted, would have a huge impact on our industry, with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and adverse effect on the US jobs as well as the entire value system in our industry. Tariffs would also mean higher prices for customers.”

He however added, “we believe, based on our conversations in D.C. with the Trump administration and congressional leaders that they are committed to strengthening, not weakening our nation’s auto industry.”

How Analysts Reacted to Ford’s Q4 Earnings

Goldman Sachs maintained its buy rating and assigned a $11 target price for Ford. “The 2025 guide was lower than we had expected driven primarily by lower volumes and to a lesser extent FX. Our view that a solid US auto cycle, Pro, and software & services mix would result in relatively flattish EBIT was wrong. … Despite the weaker guide, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock as we expect profits to pick up from the lower 1H25 base,” said analyst Mark Delaney in his note.

Bank of America also maintained its buy rating on Ford but slashed the target price from 419 to $15.50. In his note, analyst John Murphy said, “Despite lighter results ahead in 1H:25, management continued to paint a positive picture. Management called out Ford’s portfolio strength in its core truck market, especially in Pro, which is Core to the company and a priority for capital allocation.”

He added, “On top of the Core business, management reiterated potential growth opportunities in software and services, which continue to progress. Although 1H:25 is hit by a material changeover at the Kentucky Truck plant, we expect product cadence combined with management’s focus will support better profits and progress in 2H25+. Therefore, we reiterate our Buy rating.”

Ford Stock Is Trading Near Multi-Year Lows

However, Wells Fargo is not too sold on Ford’s outlook and the brokerage maintained its underweight rating on the stock. “There isn’t much to hang your hat on in 2025. EBIT is 2H weighted & relies on $1B of cost redux related to lower warranty & mat costs … Overall, we also see limited near-term catalysts, as normalization of new vehicle pricing and higher input costs likely offset expected volume increases,” said the firm’s note.

Meanwhile, Ford stock has fallen to its 52-week lows while its market cap has slumped below $37 billion. Excluding the crash during the early days of COVID-19 pandemic, Ford hasn’t traded at these price levels since 2012 which goes to show its massive underperformance.