Middle East – Central Asia Economic Forecast

The Middle East and Central Asia economies have been reliant on oil exportation for a long time.  Since the Middle East includes Egypt, as well as the southwest area of Asia, this would be expected in that this region of the world is known for having rich oil deposits.  Therefore, these parts of the world depend on mining to sustain a healthy economy.

The Middle East and Central Asia economies have been reliant on oil exportation for a long time.  Since the Middle East includes Egypt, as well as the southwest area of Asia, this would be expected in that this region of the world is known for having rich oil deposits.  Therefore, these parts of the world depend on mining to sustain a healthy economy.

In addition to rich resources of oil in the Middle East, this region is also one of serious extremes.  Although some of the countries to include Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are rich in oil and supply countries around the world, other countries in this region to include Yemen and Gaza are very poor.  To survive, the underdeveloped countries survive by depending heavily on financial aid and subsidies.

In addition to oil production, the Middle East and Central Asia are contributed by other industries such as cotton, textiles, metals, agriculture, livestock, and even equipment for military defense.  Although both regions of the world have enjoyed a strong economy because of the abundance of oil, the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 affected them as well.  At that time, pricing for oil plummeted and while at the time it created major challenges, long-term it was beneficial to the poorer countries in that demand for gas skyrocketed.  Today, the Middle East and Central Asia continue to recover but overall, they appear to be holding their own economically.

Middle East – Central Asia GDP Forecast

Because of the world financial crisis, oil prices declined, the main reason for the lower than normal GDP.  However, for 2010, experts believe the Middle East – Central GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollars) will experience several changes, each unique to the country.  The following are GDP changes expected for 2010 from the previous year:

•    Bahrain – 3.7%
•    Iran – 2.2%
•    Iraq – 5.8%
•    Kuwait – 3.2%
•    Oman – 3.8%
•    Qatar – 18.5%
•    Saudi Arabia – 4.0%
•    United Arab Emirates (UAE) – 2.4%
•    Yemen – 7.3%

Middle East – Central Asia Unemployment Forecast

Both the Middle East and Central Asia population has experienced growth over the past several years.  For Central Asia, the current number of people living there is approximately 90 million.  While that sounds like a tremendous number of people, it only accounts for 2% of Asia’s overall population.  The latest report for the Middle East is that in 2009, 10 million people lived in the various countries.

Then for the Middle East – Central Asia unemployment rate, people need to remember that each country is unique since different advantages and challenges exist.  For the Middle East, current numbers are at 13.2%.  Then for Central Asia, 2008 was reported at 24% for adults and slightly higher at 26% for youths.  Today, those numbers are down but only a little to 20% and 24% respectfully.

Middle East – Central Asia Inflation Rate Forecast

As far as the Middle East – Central Asia inflation rate, most experts agree that countries in this part of the world should experience some improvement over 2009’s numbers.  The following shows reported numbers for 2009, along with projections expected for 2010.

•    Bahrain – 2009 / 3% – 2010 / 2.5%
•    Iraq – 2009 / 6.9% – 2010 / 6.0%
•    Iran – 2009 / 12.0% – 2010 / 10.0%
•    Kuwait – 2009 / 4.6% – 2010 / 4.4%
•    Oman – 2009 / 3.3% – 2010 / 3.0%
•    Qatar – 2009 / 0% – 2010 / 4.0%
•    Saudi Arabia – 2009 / 4.5% – 2010 / 4.0%
•    United Arab Emirates (UAE) – 2009 / 2.5% – 2010 / 3.3%
•    Yemen – 2009 / 8.4% – 2010 / 8.9%

Middle East – Central Asia Current Account Balance Forecast

While the Middle East – Central Asia current account balance seemed unscathed from the global financial crisis, today it is feeling the effects with vulnerabilities to financial challenges on the rise.  Even so, with both regions having good fundamentals economically, excellent response to policies, and decent currency reserves, they are not as affected, as other regions of the world were.

Examples include oil exporters from the Middle East had a 2008 GDP of 21.5%.  Experts forecast these numbers will change by year-end 2010, putting the current account balance for this industry at 4.1%.  An example for the current account balance for Central Asia shows from 2007 to 2009, percentage for GDP shifted from a minus 1.1% to a positive 0.5%.