Markets

1 December 2014

Monday Market Moves and More

The US dollar is mostly softer as North American participants prepare to return from what, for many, was a long weekend. The greenback had initially moved higher, hitting JPY119.15 while the euro slipped to $1.2420. The proximate cause was the continued...

30 November 2014

Misconceptions about China’s Economic Growth Sources

Virtually every dimension of China’s economic success over the past three-and-a-half decades can be attributed largely to the rise of markets and private businesses. Private firms account for almost all the growth in employment, most of the expansion of output...

29 November 2014

Revisionists Threaten to Isolate Japan

Abe’s persistent stance on the Yasukuni Shrine, the Dokdo/Takeshima territorial dispute and the ‘comfort women’ issue has elicited fierce opposition from the South Korean government. While no rapprochement on any of these conflicts has been achieved, the Japanese government should...

28 November 2014

Emerging Markets Over the Last Week

1) Oil prices have taken another sharp leg down 2) The People’s Bank of China surprised the markets with rate cuts last Friday 3) Malaysia cut fuel subsidies just days after Indonesia’s new President Joko Widodo took similar measures 4) Nigeria devalued the...

28 November 2014

OPEC Meeting Fallout, Japan and Eurozone Repercussions

OPEC's decision to roll-over existing quotas sent oil prices sharply lower, pushed European bonds and stocks higher, and generally gave the U.S. dollar a boost.  Today's theme is more consolidative in nature.  At the same time, the dollar's firmer tone...

26 November 2014

Sri Lanka Becoming China’s New Best Friend?

A sea change is occurring in Sri Lanka’s strategic orientation. Recent developments suggest that Sri Lanka is becoming China’s new best friend and security partner in the eastern Indian Ocean. This would represent a major change in Sri Lanka’s foreign...

26 November 2014

History Helps Explain Japan’s Current Woes

Japan's economy and its lost decades are no more news to us. When Japan was hit by its first real estate collapse, little did it know that its revival would take forever. Many criticized the reforms that were taken and...

25 November 2014

Expanding the ECB Balance Sheet Will Take Time

EC President Juncker is set to unveil a new investment program.  It sounds good:  a fiscal complement to the monetary policy stance of the ECB.  Expectations are running high that the ECB will move to more aggressively expand its balance...

25 November 2014

The Economic Data Stream Flows On

The U.S. dollar remains within recent ranges against the euro, yen and sterling.  The antipodean currencies fell, and that is where the movement is today.  The main impetus is from a downgrade in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation...

24 November 2014

Recent Summits Expose China’s Diplomatic Subtleties

Much energy has been expended on projecting the impact of the rise of Chinese economic power on its political and military might and the strategic contest with the United States. In a conflation of geo-economic and geo-strategic analysis, two camps...