Malaysian Economy Potentially Threatened by Falling Commodity Prices
World oil prices are falling precipitously. For an oil exporter like Malaysia, that is definitely bad news. Unless the country can diversify its economy, it may find it difficult to navigate its way through the economic challenges it faces on...
The Dollar’s Last Hurrah in 2014
The US dollar is trading with a slightly heavier bias as the last minute position adjustment takes a toll. The dollar-bloc and Scandi's are doing somewhat better and sterling is a few ticks higher, while the euro and yen are...
They Make Wine in China? Why Yes, They Do
China’s wine industry has exploded in recent years, with the number of wineries more than doubling over the past decade, propelling the country past Australia to become the world’s 7th-largest producer. What is driving this fast-paced growth and is the...
China’s Challenges, though Daunting, are Surmountable
As we count down the days and now the hours towards the beginning of 2015, what preoccupies most soothsayers of the outlook for the global economy in the coming year is the shape of the Chinese economy. Nudging the United...
Reasons Why Betting on a Collapse in China may be Unwise
George Orwell once observed ‘Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem to be invincible’. Not long ago, many in the West declared that China would soon be the number one economy in the world.But in the past two...
Greek Election Fallout and European Asset Values
The failure of Greek Prime Minister Samaras to secure sufficient votes in the third and final parliamentary attempt to select a new president has sparked a sell-off in European stocks and peripheral bonds. Up until now, the contagion from Greece...
Thoughts to Mull in the Last Week of the Year
We identify six key issues for investors in the holiday-shortened week ahead. We identify six key issues for investors in the holiday-shortened week ahead. 1. The recent string of US economic data showed not only an upward revision in Q3 GDP...
Thin Trading and Closed Markets on Boxing Day
In thin trading conditions, the major currencies are little changed. The euro is straddling the $1.22 area. It has held above the low seen earlier this week near $1.2165. Since the low, the reaction high has been limited to...
World Economy 2014
2014 witnessed slow growth in the world economy. It tested economies of emerging markets and advanced economies. Economies like Eurozone, Japan and Russia saw some major financial shocks. On the other hand, when compared to 2013, advanced countries like USA...
India’s Modi Faces Challenges but Inspires Confidence
India’s economy, which has languished in middling growth for the past few years, is on the mend under new Prime Minister Narendra Modi.After experiencing real GDP growth of less than 5 per cent in 2013-14, the Indian economy is expected...
South Asian Countries Should not Wait for SAARC
Since its inception in 1985, there have been questions about the effectiveness of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to promote economic integration in South Asia. One of the biggest impediments to SAARC’s progress has been the continued...
Four Pillars of the AEC and the Looming Implementation Deadline
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is unlikely to come into being by its December 2015 deadline due to its overambitious design and apathetic implementation. But there are still plenty of things that ASEAN can do to prepare for when the...
Will 2014’s Divergence Theme Remain Intact in 2015?
It ain’t so much the things we know that get us into trouble. It’s the things we know that just ain’t so. --- Attributed to several American writers It ain’t so much the things we know that get us into...
The Gordian Knot that Binds Russia, China and Oil
As the year winds down, a Gordian knot tying Russia, oil prices and China together is receiving a great deal of attention. Let us see if we can unravel some of the confusing twists and turns. We turn first to...
A Preview of the Emerging Markets
EM currencies stabilized after the FOMC meeting last week. Yet the Fed clearly signaled that it remains on track to start hiking rates around mid-2015. While Yellen’s guidance was taken as dovish (tightening won’t be at a predictable, “measured” pace),...