Markets

31 October 2015

India is on the Outside of the TPP Looking In

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreed to on 5 October 2015 covers almost a third of world trade and 40 percent of global GDP. By not being part of the TPP, India risks losing out. According to a Center on Global...

29 October 2015

Allowing a Second Child Ends an Unpopular Policy

China is scrapping its one-child policy and officially allowing all couples to have two children. While some may think this heralds an overnight switch, the reality is that it is far less dramatic. This is, in fact, merely the latest...

29 October 2015

India’s BJP Seems to Miss Golden Opportunities

There has been a saying in India of late: ‘India never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity’. This is in stark contrast to the Chinese aphorism that President Xi Jinping referred to while addressing the British parliament in October:...

28 October 2015

Can China’s GDP Per Capita Grow Amid an Economic Slowdown?

As China’s growth is decelerating, Chinese purchasing power is accelerating. The next five-year plan will boost the change. Only a few years ago, China still enjoyed double-digit growth. According to third-quarter data, the Chinese economy grew 6.9 percent year-on-year. As...

28 October 2015

SOE Reforms in China Go the Communist Party’s Way

After much internal wrangling, China’s State Council and Communist Party Central Committee have released new guidelines for reforming state-owned enterprises (SOEs). China’s economic reform is setup to balance less formal state interference with more informal Party influence. To the delight...

28 October 2015

Secession Talks in Johor Rattle Malaysia

The Irish poet WB Yeats was not thinking about Southeast Asia when he wrote ‘things fall apart; the centre cannot hold’, but his words may accurately describe the situation in Malaysia. The monarchy governing the state of Johor is rattling...

28 October 2015

More Ammunition for an Australian Monetary Policy Change

It was a close call.  After Australia's leading banks lifted the variable rate mortgage rates recently, many observers expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to offset the tightening with a rate cut in early November.  Others emphasized that the variable...

26 October 2015

Africa’s Dependence on China is Disconcerting

Africa’s prosperity increasingly depends on China. Given recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy, Africa’s short- and long-term outlooks seem precarious.  The latest sign arrived on October 23 when China cut two benchmark interest rates to spur...

26 October 2015

Keeping the Commitment after the Apology

On 14 August, the day before the 70th anniversary of the end of the Pacific War, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe issued a long-awaited statement on Japanese memory of the war and his vision for the future. In it, he...

26 October 2015

Electing a Visionary Leader and Keeping the Vision

Every nation deserves a visionary leader, from whom its citizens can expect real results. India has had its share of visionary leaders. Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru, to name two, held views on the economy that were not only diametrically...

26 October 2015

Emerging Market Idiosyncratic Risk Remains in Place

EM starts the week off on a mixed footing.  On the one hand, hints of ECB stimulus and actual PBOC stimulus last week suggest a more supportive global liquidity backdrop for EM and risk.  On the other hand, they are...

26 October 2015

India’s FDI is Booming, but the Economy Needs More

India has pulled ahead of China and United States as the most favoured destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). According to the Financial Times (FT), India received US$31 billion in FDI in 2015, which is US$3 and US$4 billion more...